Frontier market game · final pass · 22 September 2026

Market Networks

The Bayesian network each model built over Turtel's 1,265 test questions by trading conditional bets. Every node is a question that took part in at least one dependency; every edge is a conditional trade. Questions never linked stay independent and appear only in the distribution below.

market P(yes) 0 → 1 resolved YES resolved NOedge width = |P(a|b=yes) − P(a|b=no)|drag to pan · scroll to zoom · hover for the question

Distribution of final probabilities

All 1,265 questions, market P(yes) after the final pass, stacked by how they resolved. Mass at the right should be green and at the left amber; the overlap in the middle is where the market was unsure.

Component sizes

Connected groups of linked questions, largest first. Sessions saw 8 or 16 questions at once, so components beyond that size mean links built across sessions and passes.

Strongest dependencies