{ "schema_version": 1, "scope_id": "original300-reviewed-final-v3", "status": "frozen_before_final_campaign_inference", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-13T04:35:21.782388+00:00", "reviewer": "/root with source review by /root/final_scope_review", "source_cohort": { "loader": "common.load_tuples('data/tuples', 30)", "tuple_count": 300, "proposition_count": 591, "tuple_order": "common.load_tuples source order: sorted JSONL paths, first30 records each", "canonicalization": "json.dumps(value, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True, separators=(comma, colon)).encode(UTF-8)", "tuples_sha256": "5b50c394ab65c6f9aebbf80754f27d2b588e5517e57b88a8759fa7c6e906e4ab", "proposition_texts_sha256": "80551f28e40c368e4ddb73935b9cc7250f7b80af0b14d83120491037ba038d2d", "source_file_sha256": { "data/tuples/And.jsonl": "05cdab75432be8190d587a44db6f5c9615f767b15b0ea29131d93820714ee557", "data/tuples/AndOr.jsonl": "e07e3448a678c7b4d69410546d425aecef83a211e751418022691bb7e6284079", "data/tuples/But.jsonl": "bfcbf6b5afdbb1530dbef0b22a5da16087b8963294d1dccd655cb0d8d81e0f91", "data/tuples/Cond.jsonl": "0c9b649de80e7192f496ef93bdc2d269b1dd303945abd53768984782f4c944a0", "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl": "e5119a651b92246d249f1b517efb5309d7f188df428eda3e3a5d5b92af58fd99", "data/tuples/Consequence.jsonl": "b8425d548ac2aa98fdceafbfc1e571325f517a0be34664ac990c274e27987f44", "data/tuples/ExpEvidence.jsonl": "da34cf0588d6cee8621e56b26aff4ec55052b3cf52f3cf734b3ed88dbe60b411", "data/tuples/Negation.jsonl": "8959b6c759eed0ee451132fe24d1e5c469e61b1d632b647667b7d1973b2eaf70", "data/tuples/Or.jsonl": "c2a24375982e009eb70c7d6f0b2ba5e54bd0b9183ef0e620afa7f9549ee502b9", "data/tuples/Paraphrase.jsonl": "9273d207dda9b2e74d777a02b9b0b0a698042e14f6289f613ebf922166eef8f2" } }, "selection_method": { "all_591_titles_screened": true, "all_591_full_source_texts_screened": true, "screening_detail": "All 591 titles were inspected. All 591 complete source bodies were machine-screened for US names/aliases, institutions, policy/legislation/electoral terms, and worldwide/conditional predicates; source matches were classified by their target, not by presence of government vocabulary alone. Full bodies for boundary families, title/criteria discrepancies, named-person targets, FDA/EPA decisions, NASA/EIA measurements, and positive/negative acceptance examples were manually inspected. This is not a claim of sentence-by-sentence manual review of every repeated body.", "source_only": true, "model_outputs_read": false, "inference_performed": false, "source_texts_modified": false, "old_review_classifications_reused_as_authority": false, "topic_rule": "Hold numerical questions involving US politicians/parties/policy/legislation/political entities, including explicit compound and conditional predicates. Specific US federal regulatory decisions are held under the parent campaign disposition. Non-US politics and government-associated scientific/business/technical measurements are not blanket excluded.", "global_rule": "Worldwide existential predicates with no identified US actor or US policy target remain source-eligible. A generic any-country/any-candidate quantifier alone is not treated as an explicit US target. NATO-wide policy and Article 5 collective-defense commitments receive the explicit dispositions recorded below.", "conditional_rule": "An explicit held US political predicate remains held if it is an antecedent or one clause of a compound, even when the other target concerns business, science, or non-US politics.", "past_event_rule": "A completed past US election falling within an old source window is not used to authorize a new numerical political answer.", "independence_limit": "Source targets and quotations were independently inspected; campaign boundary decisions communicated by the parent are identified as decisions, not treated as independent evidence that the source contains additional words. 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"2028/ParaphraseChecker:27", "2028/ParaphraseChecker:30" ], "exclusions": [ { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:1", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "70e5eb5da3d65be4a04470fde19c35287d1929cc3fd8eccf6f09c59f79714aef", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. 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Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "0ea8bc258d00cca54cb219bfe99cb732b5c62a04b8e689f4a44418e67e8fa1a9", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) The global space industry generates annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027 and (b) The Democratic Party gains a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:6", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "bdb12ed2fd6a18f16a23f7bf425ac3e38305f2cd3f4b0e59bf568a7f43dd3913", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d2930926661de3e3e368cfc3d34d38d95dede3e580fed007866afbeb11eafb65", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. 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Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party (US) introduces legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States, and (b) The Republican Party (US) proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:10", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5aa69b6a856acf54143fe79c39a247a5189f8c0cbc3ccc5c5d792e81246903e1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. 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A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress pass a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "de4f6394db7f173830b4930807fd19966a99fff5db1cf9bbb9a0426b76b19a23", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the US Senate passes a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill and (b) the US Congress passes a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:14", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "ee52744f71fef4ce54e0bdd30d105a56b81ca1975bd2383307974ec7aaeb6df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will California pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "b641eb55f2fb46096b47532799c14fe7e711f039b34fb41e376ae138018bcc0b", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. 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This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) NASA announces a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission, and (b) NATO adopts a new nuclear weapons policy?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:18", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7b87b7edefe4696773fbd168a61cf99a3dc0eb9dd37c2d623b9d69da35d8feb0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk publicly endorse a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "807b806a6e5b8f25194e488d26de139c9919bb9c40740cceb9dd644d4353e672", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk's net worth, as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg, exceed $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "9f8802cf26c5669bb3516952df963296d1095b538aeadd1133c6bd3cdac89f83", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election (b) Elon Musk's net worth, as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg, exceeds $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:19", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "66eb27bb75c7a6782022f460ff885d7d15adcd9634ac2a478fcd0a4aae4a763e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "63532c02f407e77d158a6f4944e9f6327535d2c64647cd4d8e7474bbab5e234f", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. 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Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "dcdb22e3827861b3669f40c4d1e027fc4d7c527c3bd9b03f50b83ccabdbb4cd4", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Will a new environmentally friendly drug be approved by the FDA for treating a major disease before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "74537ebd3f814e3ed4fea0b961284c318750d85ce787a03315ae9b811787e1bc", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A candidate with a background in biotechnology wins a gubernatorial election in any US state (b) A new environmentally friendly drug is approved by the FDA for treating a major disease?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:23", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "1967123d46163f1c23a6930c1f713ba73b1463950543bd9dc270bdab7b101b57", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "c91032d62b9775e62ed1b8c6977df18beb56c4f31992d78a0a6c608182f896b4", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. 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Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "e17744dd47798cfcf662aa31cfac6ce3eca211b1f5354f603012ec470b7c69c0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress and (b) the US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:27", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "c3e214ee7b6339ea62f2e2d5c44e9b3ae9b279129c7f05f444877b7afc704c7f", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will China and the United States sign a bilateral climate agreement before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "eb00450d0e6323d486ae06332c432000773d8a4b5b92ba1ef03c7c158e583647", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) China and the United States sign a bilateral climate agreement, and (b) Tesla announces a project involving nuclear technology?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:29", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0ea630e58ffe0ef3acbd96f1afec7a65bcc7af6068a3926d61d92a04f5d91228", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will Amazon publicly announce a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "9e89ae480969bdb4ead30773b2ce9d7f93b071c120c6d1ef277e58d6db706b0d", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) a candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter, and (b) Amazon publicly announces a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndChecker:30", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "a5620ffb4d9ffd28b4734d2c30f5f19b3bd67edf68643d0914d1b0b97271227b", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress pass legislation mandating 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "e2995ae0c51b4a102b7f3019ea890860118ad1395c1345bd77ae26b4dcbb3d67", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) India becomes a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and (b) the US Congress passes legislation mandating a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:1", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5aa69b6a856acf54143fe79c39a247a5189f8c0cbc3ccc5c5d792e81246903e1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "4bdfcf7e4e3c797b59fb6b65badc4e704d459f117711ff7be3ea12d47e8292fe", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress pass a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "09d28ff0bf4d0d5ee44ba49cad23e6e9048ebe71efb36d7ee40fdd0773cdafcb", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the US Senate passes a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill and (b) the US Congress passes a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "0e4b1222ca287c616b14bed559f6a91e9f01667f93c637128d2699805dc5695f", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill or the US Congress pass a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:3", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "70e5eb5da3d65be4a04470fde19c35287d1929cc3fd8eccf6f09c59f79714aef", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "2540718f87ec38a9d893e5afe5d4456c20ea325f6b0d468e96e738b048486bd4", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The United States passes a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management, and (b) Canada implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "4ca42984fd66728d2ea50c633a9c67c8eae95abbc8f30c27941af9f7d7d1ede6", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management, or Canada implement a nationwide artificial intelligence policy before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:5", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "afdb00a364d6ca412f5ebbd42e30e73ea2170d21fa04f8654839b24e946895d6", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States officially implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "b1193f38913254e694e095acb5c334053a85a1d68931205474af72f1a5f8d97c", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Canada holds a national referendum on energy independence, and (b) The United States implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "c92126839fcb8b295d49ba463c047f3a62943f0141220045f45a1b8f73c72f9f", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either Canada hold a national referendum on energy independence or the United States implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:7", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "bdb12ed2fd6a18f16a23f7bf425ac3e38305f2cd3f4b0e59bf568a7f43dd3913", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d2930926661de3e3e368cfc3d34d38d95dede3e580fed007866afbeb11eafb65", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Republican Party (US) propose a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "79890260845a047c14c2bbf3a4f99b6f471bf9f5fec99c0cbdfcebf5ba894b54", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) The Democratic Party (US) introduces legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States, and (2) The Republican Party (US) proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "930cd97ffc32ad1e64a1cfef4530040a9f6ad8a437ad4b6429d32252f16bff3e", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the Democratic Party (US) introduces legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States, or (b) the Republican Party (US) proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:10", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7a9fc91ba643511a734241e8e0ce17a69b5bc44000f039e3b11df188d772e359", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "2c4a89872035441488110fe27351d250e6d947bde8f3ba6e4166783b4009af6f", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) The global space industry generates annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027, and (b) The Democratic Party gains a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "b6790cec7275cada5e3143cb3161265c655683e578522109c74c7468e6fdd4ad", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either the global space industry generate annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027, or the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:13", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d24d016d810f81de5ef98a3b58cf66708eb699e1ea9e8bd1c03e27c1afdf6798", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "f76698ff6e5e5ae242eb28fabf9d5ecbbe50d9dc4c811ec3c780210a3a08d11e", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) NASA announces a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission (b) NATO adopts a new nuclear weapons policy?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "85b454cd34a516af0657e98f9a20f4b5b8468d33f1dba72809c71cc472209fe6", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will either NASA announce a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission or NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:14", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "ee52744f71fef4ce54e0bdd30d105a56b81ca1975bd2383307974ec7aaeb6df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will California pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "b641eb55f2fb46096b47532799c14fe7e711f039b34fb41e376ae138018bcc0b", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "3535a2908dfdd16a8ce7f23e059c746fd42895eb74640c397b3110559fea8f4b", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) California passes legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, and (b) the Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "ee409779372870027dc05d740d3055d88067da2858e75897b3e8f6fbe20de5b6", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) California passes legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, or (b) the Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7b87b7edefe4696773fbd168a61cf99a3dc0eb9dd37c2d623b9d69da35d8feb0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk publicly endorse a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "807b806a6e5b8f25194e488d26de139c9919bb9c40740cceb9dd644d4353e672", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk's net worth, as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg, exceed $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "102c5297ddcadb9271493d0927e3717da554580457bc1503a7d808481bce0dee", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election and (b) Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "946c746b7adc533d6a9e00cd2f7396798aafa89e70e61bcba0cce787ba2ce6d0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election, or (b) Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $400 billion as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:17", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "a8c28a7715bfb0362c3714e7cb55e277888a600398f5cf7beea521c2088d57e1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "dcdb22e3827861b3669f40c4d1e027fc4d7c527c3bd9b03f50b83ccabdbb4cd4", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Will a new environmentally friendly drug be approved by the FDA for treating a major disease before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "d8a3b144ed6af287a55806f8162280b66165f86b3695e1be4fb785bb46d59d67", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A candidate with a background in biotechnology wins a gubernatorial election in any US state, and (b) A new environmentally friendly drug is approved by the FDA for treating a major disease?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "a0566a643a7661d59d082f262beb2c31430c78af02ef0dc1bccf862536b8dc6c", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state or a new environmentally friendly drug be approved by the FDA for treating a major disease before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:18", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "66eb27bb75c7a6782022f460ff885d7d15adcd9634ac2a478fcd0a4aae4a763e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "9ac296ab34836317461ddf4d43a91a334e47b0047a08ddfd5526cb38ca5b9a94", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence, and (b) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "391ec0eec6f09647ac1ce3f4b859c97c463e228843390d91ddbf9b9db06660bd", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will either the Supreme Court rule on AI ethics or a new nuclear waste reduction method be implemented by 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:23", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d36881f52aa452de3c2eb550f89775b867ece2cc18a9f066a482a9cc43017ea5", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "d10554c10faeff8a43b1ccadd74078b1d7d1d6a20b18c785c924c5c480ee607e", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress, and (b) the US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "f010904ddbf679d6d1eb98a6155cc21293b4a0cb9d9a46586c4797cc11736971", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress, or (b) The US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:24", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "1967123d46163f1c23a6930c1f713ba73b1463950543bd9dc270bdab7b101b57", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "04a105789402d20b2faf673dca7d8c9e9c26a98f68760c1bc5d270b51f7b0df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) The US House of Representatives passes a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management, and (2) Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "12c9a21bcd6044d2dfad456065f416a4e5994d63bdf3db95d5b13f5587b6a41c", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management or Brazil reduce deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:27", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0ea630e58ffe0ef3acbd96f1afec7a65bcc7af6068a3926d61d92a04f5d91228", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will Amazon publicly announce a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "0c0bcea194080141e36cc006ee97fc2122376b5526c1c42d645b44b7e9a3a9cf", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter, and (b) Amazon publicly announces a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "a55221de9c305f0ecf3f473123e4dedb39018b2377a80823ba4fb92068c600fb", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) Any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter, or (2) Amazon publicly announces a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/AndOrChecker:28", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "eb0735d9546e9db1dc64de9ff22ac94729b6ded8baca1771bb31f2e87e1f8f13", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0073f111bbd0fdaa5aa6c73104e385f881528f51aae01df39336611e75bd9e8e", "code": "us_nationwide_government_energy_program", "reason": "Full criteria require US-government-announced nationwide implementation of an AI-driven energy-management system. This is implementation of a nationwide government program, not a standalone technical system measurement.", "source_quote": "Will the United States implement a nationwide AI-driven energy management system by January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "83a14553db570f538765fb74bd09f35ed3de785cb544e5396c53a7089639cec9", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) the US Senate passes a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, and (b) the United States implements a nationwide AI-driven energy management system?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "30a704989d77a930e83a84ace9fde82d018d0c434b0c6114186a99b7c4e99195", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The US Senate passes a bill regulating AI technologies, including those by OpenAI, or (b) The United States implements a nationwide AI-driven energy management system?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:1", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "59b9674073f30a624174e62220ceb2dbcac68e162727b2cacd22f9e4ba694411", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) The United States officially implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028, AND (b) Canada does not hold a national referendum on energy independence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "5b9dfc49a73c0f2326fce95e876e86cb73331d8455296e1e63a7abd6378e6de5", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either Canada hold a national referendum on energy independence or the United States implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:3", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "bdb12ed2fd6a18f16a23f7bf425ac3e38305f2cd3f4b0e59bf568a7f43dd3913", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "801cddc70f1d814e650b19044c3d3020aa9b85bd93b069eece3abfa5d6b569b1", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Republican Party (US) proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year, and (b) The Democratic Party (US) does not introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "906a880ce46859706207d95d77cfdc414cebba8e7817a31d9fa3c72a6b122edd", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party (US) introduces legislation to phase out nuclear energy (b) The Republican Party (US) proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:6", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "cd7bbbae1e755688974d706d14c791412142197c013e63d5db5ce419e489835b", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) The Democratic Party gains a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections, and (b) The global space industry generates annual revenues of $1 trillion or less by the end of 2027?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "9f24d4d78cdf40d7933ee82fcb15840654421627b8cabcc35b3c6390e9f5c86a", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by their respective deadlines: (1) The global space industry generates annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027, or (2) The Democratic Party gains a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:7", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "70e5eb5da3d65be4a04470fde19c35287d1929cc3fd8eccf6f09c59f79714aef", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "58bb68d88e1a759807c85e58e6501491b8e65e4c9d129c6d2fcc16c2bbb1350f", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Canada implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy, and (b) the United States does not pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "23f057a9f013e2e8632d8d4af14484fb353d51dde2559306661961975e975b8f", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management or Canada implement a nationwide artificial intelligence policy before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:9", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5aa69b6a856acf54143fe79c39a247a5189f8c0cbc3ccc5c5d792e81246903e1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "4ae4428bd1e91d56b84b275f7b339b058d3e53537f52dadaa837e34b7b2d12d5", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The US Congress passes a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and (b) The US Senate fails to pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "a3bf144d7daccd04a95b3c161d39280d55fb1baa8cd4e7b3ce2e7f399a7dca79", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The US Senate passes a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill (b) The US Congress passes a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:14", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "ee52744f71fef4ce54e0bdd30d105a56b81ca1975bd2383307974ec7aaeb6df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will California pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "f870d691967f890ffda582f7e2be5f3a12356f0f36a47249f22280a6fff4bb4f", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies before January 1, 2028, and (b) California does not pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "a49f43425354f77de84c1e8f0a3f3d66ef5f1f7c53a96de89f4ca12ebdd36f91", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) California passes legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, or (2) the Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "ae247a53693a29f82daf66161baa0a29ce45878ef4546a039cfae4ee9d262f22", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) NATO officially adopts a new nuclear weapons policy, and (b) NASA does not announce a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "85b454cd34a516af0657e98f9a20f4b5b8468d33f1dba72809c71cc472209fe6", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will either NASA announce a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission or NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:16", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7b87b7edefe4696773fbd168a61cf99a3dc0eb9dd37c2d623b9d69da35d8feb0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk publicly endorse a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "10ba0e9ddf23507106cdcea2fdbd34e4b0fe10de2ceb88878eafe76d2da8491b", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $400 billion as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg, and (b) Elon Musk does not publicly endorse a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "d8f73164715c5b0d040e7ee208b2ce94c303986f709e7944e7206fa87ebb3f27", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur: (a) Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election, or (b) Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:17", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "a8c28a7715bfb0362c3714e7cb55e277888a600398f5cf7beea521c2088d57e1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "524068094ca951985aa802398fdf9127859e65e42dcefb2579198d93e9d1632d", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) a new environmentally friendly drug is approved by the FDA for treating a major disease, and (b) no candidate with a background in biotechnology wins a gubernatorial election in any US state?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "5149a9cbc4d01431c2fd4faed96ff53a9a5b034eb31da3b6322870ea408cc474", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A candidate with a background in biotechnology wins a gubernatorial election in any US state, or (b) A new environmentally friendly drug is approved by the FDA for treating a major disease?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:20", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "66eb27bb75c7a6782022f460ff885d7d15adcd9634ac2a478fcd0a4aae4a763e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "a6db2e860a29bdc4472b1ed6c14c17ba3b90696399eedb595c70b62dca5c5981", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented, and (b) The Supreme Court of the United States does not rule on any case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "e659e2fb66b3300e7255421dfca19b248fec88be30907102c4951e32b2bb79c6", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence, or (b) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:21", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d36881f52aa452de3c2eb550f89775b867ece2cc18a9f066a482a9cc43017ea5", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "4bac173db67d0d974fa91d1b990265504ec7ea373c8010b2091cd7a1979d0275", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House, and (b) The Democratic Party does not introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "f010904ddbf679d6d1eb98a6155cc21293b4a0cb9d9a46586c4797cc11736971", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress, or (b) The US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:26", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "1967123d46163f1c23a6930c1f713ba73b1463950543bd9dc270bdab7b101b57", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "7e712aa9ed97a7ba33175153cf77d1a92ad0f01eebf4ba216ccacc0d4a813206", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels, and (b) the US House of Representatives fails to pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "238be268e5e4eeb45a60d687739e3f727c91e950be9da26df37a783c38e8ca80", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the US House of Representatives pass a bill on nuclear waste management or Brazil reduce Amazon deforestation by 70% before 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:28", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "27b26964a0c6587a969497864a46b83df9755c096ebe0bf9d0818c8fd5c05faf", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Amazon announces a lobbying effort resulting in a US federal law, and (b) no 2028 US presidential candidate supports dark matter research funding?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "846923ec507784bc682c325371853687ec0840b315f4c3ff564c1aee59de352a", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter, or (b) Amazon publicly announces a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ButChecker:29", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "eb0735d9546e9db1dc64de9ff22ac94729b6ded8baca1771bb31f2e87e1f8f13", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_and_not_P", "proposition_id": "762d45cfaa0e1dd59e4aff33abe7d01559b6db47a1c0c9ef7fe1da8145c33d5f", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) the United States implements a nationwide AI-driven energy management system by January 1, 2028, and (b) the US Senate fails to pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "7a427a285c03606232d969266271084a948f5b25f208dcc0c1d110418b9a7b74", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (1) The US Senate passes a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, (2) The United States implements a nationwide AI-driven energy management system?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:2", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "f6a98c78cf116b4693f7a1405378c9a3da3c58ad464aa4497330110a167e537e", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given Canada holds a national referendum on energy independence, will the US ban single-use plastic bags before 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "d86c82599c39090dbb1d4f7cf2785ae16fdc3cb3f88d6e34025fc41163c002fe", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Canada holds a national referendum on energy independence (b) The United States implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:3", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "bdb12ed2fd6a18f16a23f7bf425ac3e38305f2cd3f4b0e59bf568a7f43dd3913", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "46c5cfab6876e679f85466e263af9532de3cec72c607926f24fae2c8ccbd7df7", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the Democratic Party introduces legislation to phase out nuclear energy before January 1, 2028, will the Republican Party propose a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "89f0cc7da9f4c9d2c5178003873afe9761e22e2977fe5d859ff7f913393f7d1a", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party (US) introduces legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States, and (b) The Republican Party (US) proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:5", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "5787933aab21359ac921d637e5d7c2065ec49ac0dea9e610d2d206ccd6db21a8", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the global space industry generating annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by 2027, will the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House after the 2026 elections?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "cc10a3415d5d74a8e81135d66745e7215853195bada40cdfdf6c5c2dbfd79ad1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) Will the global space industry generate annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027? (b) Will the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:6", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5aa69b6a856acf54143fe79c39a247a5189f8c0cbc3ccc5c5d792e81246903e1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "8b54e201dcc7fcd14ade48f67890f0a2363f2c8fdb72fcfd5d7804e75723df10", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US Senate passes a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill before January 1, 2028, will the US Congress pass a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "ba5629ba21d1fa59069d0124914ce6c8f4f320a2a2a6d86941afdb6a514a3a2d", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The US Senate passes a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill, and (b) The US Congress passes a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:7", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "70e5eb5da3d65be4a04470fde19c35287d1929cc3fd8eccf6f09c59f79714aef", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "1e960bba14cefad330b5e110de0d4c90e82c66196e8fadc388c4f67dc1a07806", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the United States passes a federal law regulating the ethical use of AI in energy management before January 1, 2028, will Canada implement a nationwide AI policy before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "06819f8e82816f6ebf76dca0826d0f96705f68292b1cf2eb4d72098537a8ba01", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The United States passes a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management, and (b) Canada implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:10", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "5bdc16080167eec09bc34cd6067875ce1684fe96f852451a6ead6f6afff04d6b", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Conditional on NASA announcing a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission before January 1, 2028, will NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "287f5cb7a2b5f3222ac7be710a7936a0afa4d393cc76d3bbb88a22f2bf2aeb15", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) NASA announces a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission, and (b) NATO adopts a new nuclear weapons policy?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:13", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7b87b7edefe4696773fbd168a61cf99a3dc0eb9dd37c2d623b9d69da35d8feb0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk publicly endorse a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "683365d7dc1eb9893b3d97d13c19a42cd5de0f4482943aa061cb08eea8353345", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election, will his net worth exceed $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "ef7e76a3ae552d2be79473ee8fc5c40574b3711eca1e921328ca46baf288ed24", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur: (a) Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election (b) Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:18", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "a8c28a7715bfb0362c3714e7cb55e277888a600398f5cf7beea521c2088d57e1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "5983937c56a27c28266d76b71d04a9d8437342144a1891f4306183294304599c", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given a candidate with a biotechnology background wins a gubernatorial election, will an environmentally friendly drug be FDA-approved for a major disease before 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "ed64a5ea9626adbb2211d4bcec7c104f428c30ba57d91c6bf17d4262ebd00776", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) a candidate with a background in biotechnology wins a gubernatorial election in any US state and (b) a new environmentally friendly drug is approved by the FDA for treating a major disease?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:19", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "ee52744f71fef4ce54e0bdd30d105a56b81ca1975bd2383307974ec7aaeb6df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will California pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "a3fbdd71c4edd9882e1acca1f3a04647d444f9f996c87338b687652d0c82661a", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Conditional on California passing legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028, will the Supreme Court rule on AI regulation before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "7f3cf9dce71747430055cdbf5c857e13488634a8315559bcba42e0e92c117b5e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) California passes legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, and (2) the Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:20", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "66eb27bb75c7a6782022f460ff885d7d15adcd9634ac2a478fcd0a4aae4a763e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "8a39d6137331c152906d889a8fc8f5ed6bbc7b0701bdb17f8a86bc070cd948d0", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "GIVEN the Supreme Court rules on AI ethics, will a new method for reducing nuclear waste impact be developed by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "5f807552ed1352db98dd395bca004a707899d138844f333285e5dc8f2fe372b9", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence (b) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:21", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d36881f52aa452de3c2eb550f89775b867ece2cc18a9f066a482a9cc43017ea5", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "4f25139f63b0aceca8f18e1c18fb440f11a878e362577ddc2038e99e0ce81ee1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given the Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income, will the US Congress hold a Speaker election before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "28f8a68a179ca014f1cc76b07358a178390e3f0523c71f105c828146c89a5459", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress, and (b) The US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:24", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "1967123d46163f1c23a6930c1f713ba73b1463950543bd9dc270bdab7b101b57", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "b30860fdb544e89920472d04b4175e580ff10f32f196c21096a64d60f8cf7b44", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US House passes a nuclear waste management bill, will Brazil reduce Amazon deforestation by 70% by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "2c53c4f195f766b82caae84aebeecddb2d854a21ce487a30273f94e38fd9f0d4", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the US House of Representatives passes a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management, and (b) Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:26", "category": "semantic", "code": "conditional_event_window_changed", "fields": [ "Q_given_P" ], "reason": "The base microorganism-discovery event and conjunction require discovery between October 1, 2024 and January 1, 2028. Q_given_P states discovery by January 1, 2028 without the lower bound. The hypothetical specifies the lower bound only for the NASA landing, so the conditioned outcome is not explicitly the same event.", "source_question_ids": { "P": "e12a22c9-2e57-466b-a7c3-c9492b2b0adb", "Q_given_P": "3dc85de7-0d3e-4b61-9602-c7f1c6080acc", "P_and_Q": "55896d00-7919-41bb-8cb8-5d509bc989fc" } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:27", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "6433e90e8a58a9abcff239039cb85a5eceb82120d5bf94239f94c5a0924c6dc4", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given a US presidential candidate supports dark matter research funding, will Amazon's lobbying result in a federal law by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "a67f4aef0465b2639f14136f359ed2253fa7d4dce6ba9110aed99b708c4cceed", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) A candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter, and (2) Amazon publicly announces a lobbying effort resulting in the passage of a federal law in the United States?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondChecker:28", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "eb0735d9546e9db1dc64de9ff22ac94729b6ded8baca1771bb31f2e87e1f8f13", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "debcf667deed8de1bf11c891ef671828672632ebfbfc1384eedf7dabf8e96d24", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US Senate passes a bill regulating AI by January 1, 2028, will the US implement a nationwide AI-driven energy management system by then?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "20c7b2804e5b85d5e08591dbf062a179574ea84a8b3244ac41bb68c6ceb8b461", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The US Senate passes a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, and (b) The United States implements a nationwide AI-driven energy management system?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:1", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "54249699d321c19aa09b34018ea4b08b9c1e672811fa6949e7cc203baefc6650", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States Democratic Party propose new nuclear safety regulations before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "f2c205d50d1582108713b28cc7b2866a0da0c3e79d963549940c967214708692", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the United States Democratic Party proposes new nuclear safety regulations, will Taiwan implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastics before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "269604279839017a66e2778a2b6e53fd7dea15e375dc0fc643758943bdfbb127", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Given that both the US Democratic Party proposes new nuclear safety regulations and Taiwan implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastics before January 1, 2028, will an AI system be used to develop a new environmental policy in the UK before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "b7d33e717773eae5ee37ee2ca39cd8e941fef54d604b73f5f647834f767e529d", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The United States Democratic Party proposes new nuclear safety regulations, (b) Taiwan implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastics, and (c) An AI system is used to develop a new environmental policy in the United Kingdom?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:2", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "e7920146993dd669f7a4ad02665597bcb4049105edaf7d2c261e3d03b7556f73", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Conditional on a new method for reducing nuclear waste impact being developed and commercially implemented by January 1, 2028, will Elon Musk announce a manned mission to Mars before 2028-01-01?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "45ecc76cabba78965813b9699a6287ca82cf09aa96f4bf054be29fcbeb366840", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Given both a new method for reducing nuclear waste is developed and Elon Musk announces a Mars mission by 2028, will Canada implement an AI policy by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "ebe0c5a2b3e18bb739118e880a73f1f41453f29b870f73dd42c89f70561700e2", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact is developed and commercially implemented, (b) Elon Musk announces a manned mission to Mars, and (c) Canada implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:2", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "R_given_P_and_Q gives P, Q and R only January 1, 2028 upper bounds. P and Q_given_P supply October 1, 2024 lower bounds for P and Q, and the conjunction supplies that lower bound for all three. The complete R body does not restore the omitted starts.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 2, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "0bbd4463-4080-40eb-85e9-debf2525f181", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if a new method for reducing the environmental impact of nuclear waste is developed and commercially implemented between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The method must be documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized environmental regulatory authority." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 2, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "0e690a8d-6588-43c8-8c54-6b1b260f1e45", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: A new method for reducing the environmental impact of nuclear waste is developed and commercially implemented between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. This method must be documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized environmental regulatory authority. Then, will Elon Musk announce a manned mission to Mars before January 1, 2028? The announcement must be made publicly and reported by major international news outlets between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 2, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "6468038b-0d8a-4f05-bed3-acb01b96b41f", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: (a) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented by January 1, 2028, and (b) Elon Musk announces a manned mission to Mars before January 1, 2028. The nuclear waste method must be documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized environmental regulatory authority. The Mars mission announcement must be made publicly and reported by major international news outlets.\n\nGiven these conditions, will Canada implement a nationwide artificial intelligence policy before January 1, 2028? The policy must be formally announced by the Government of Canada and documented in official government publications or press releases." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 2, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "af8a4d12-ecca-4b37-8616-8517e2ac7de5", "source_part": "body", "quote": "(a) A new method for reducing the environmental impact of nuclear waste must be developed and commercially implemented between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The method must be documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized environmental regulatory authority. (b) Elon Musk must announce a manned mission to Mars publicly between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The announcement must be reported by major international news outlets. (c) The Government of Canada must officially implement a nationwide artificial intelligence policy between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The policy must be formally announced and documented in official government publications or press releases." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "In R_given_P_and_Q, reproduce the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for each of P, Q and R, preserving the existing substantive and documentation criteria." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:3", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "47248af86db6a70e7f1ff86c52a6ac59e85c46bb03ec51c2c88f05623c5a31a1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Conditional on any 2028 US presidential candidate supporting dark matter research funding, will a new international treaty on nuclear safety be signed and ratified before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "3f1083cba8d2e45cdbc208993d6b199ccdfe405abedbb640b06132953a166a17", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Conditional on both the US presidential candidate supporting dark matter research and a new nuclear safety treaty being ratified, will the US Senate impose new sanctions on Russia by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "b6ff2f00f59444e697dad8a663ffb70995fa9c0117b3627a1498bf9a3227da6d", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter, (b) a new international treaty on nuclear safety is signed and ratified by at least five countries, and (c) the US Senate passes a resolution imposing new economic sanctions on Russia?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:4", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "01dbabe1ff7b5a567a5ce2608230a0deac3c16258852add7a82fb5a08c7c915d", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Will a new pharmacological method for treating radiation sickness be approved by the FDA before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "d97910f08a1e0682cc212d89bd27c5d7374c47f34f4788f4e48ec498ac62457f", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Given FDA approval of a new treatment for radiation sickness, will AI be used to edit human genes clinically by 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "320aa3ad373e8695b0b6e03a48427c33e51b7e9615d8f9e3a379b4e44096177e", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Given both a new pharmacological method for treating radiation sickness is FDA approved and AI gene editing occurs, will an AI-driven drug discovery platform from Mexico receive FDA approval by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "b2577543b2250c93fbc706da3cecdcfed161a08d65fabac5f72f4e16f1d38ca1", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A new pharmacological method for treating radiation sickness is approved by the FDA, (b) An AI system is used to successfully edit human genes in a clinical setting, and (c) An AI-driven drug discovery platform developed in Mexico receives FDA approval?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:5", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5b3e915055f555b4ecd6c1f399b8b1a7d77d1b6e8369d5363b4e35a52c429039", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass legislation mandating the use of AI in environmental policy analysis before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "fa752c2c84dfe09cb3aa5e95d7af222465c800a2a536793cc0723faec01208e2", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US Senate mandates AI in environmental policy by 2028, will a Tesla executive run for major US office?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "ce03fa937d9ddea35c942a17353c3069f4c3f3caaccfce8c7c81dd91971c1d1a", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given that the US mandates AI in environmental policy and a Tesla executive runs for office, will France join a new international energy agreement by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "ce0dec8d0b8c7d36a7ba3d6ef2de12f6276f69454ea9054d81cfc034ae966d92", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The US Senate passes legislation mandating the use of AI in environmental policy analysis, (b) A Tesla executive runs for a major political office in the United States, and (c) France officially joins a new international energy agreement?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:7", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "Q_given_P gives Q only an upper bound, while both the R premise and conjunction give Q an October 1, 2024 lower bound. R_given_P_and_Q gives R only an upper bound, while the conjunction gives R a creation-date lower bound.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 7, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "eadcc8e0-a5c0-47c1-b6c6-510860df96cb", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Then, will OpenAI release an AI system capable of passing the US bar exam before January 1, 2028?" }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 7, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "5e4f49db-4db8-4d2c-aa0b-87f23fa8eb24", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: (a) France and China officially sign a bilateral trade agreement specifically involving biotechnology between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the agreement being officially documented and recognized by both governments, and (b) OpenAI releases an AI system capable of passing the US bar exam at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the AI system achieving a passing score on the bar exam as defined by the National Conference of Bar Examiners (NCBE) and this achievement being confirmed by reputable sources. Given these conditions, will a national government publicly announce the adoption of an artificial intelligence policy that was developed in collaboration with OpenAI before January 1, 2028? The announcement must be made through official government channels and explicitly mention OpenAI's involvement." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 7, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "9348a291-7eb2-4eb8-aeea-d2e5452cf4ad", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met: (1) France and China officially sign a bilateral trade agreement specifically involving biotechnology between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the agreement being officially documented and recognized by both governments. (2) OpenAI releases an AI system capable of passing the US bar exam at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the AI system achieving a passing score on the bar exam as defined by the National Conference of Bar Examiners (NCBE) and this achievement being confirmed by reputable sources. (3) A national government publicly announces the adoption of an artificial intelligence policy that was developed in collaboration with OpenAI between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028. The announcement must be made through official government channels and explicitly mention OpenAI's involvement." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Add the October 1, 2024 lower bound to Q in Q_given_P and the source creation-date lower bound to R in R_given_P_and_Q. Resolve the creation date from source metadata before replacing it with a calendar date; do not assume it equals October 1, 2024." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:8", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "5e115901c8fd01e999311e22e24fea2d84a77c2a7e39f502d22aad05db62a2ab", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "If a film produced in Taiwan wins the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film before January 1, 2028, will the United States hold a presidential election resulting in a new president before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "a3bf90da1fbb3ad93b79044e1c2c5e84947cae513ef17f009b415d2da5bb422e", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "If both a Taiwanese film wins Best International Feature Film and the US elects a new president before 2028, will Brazil reduce Amazon deforestation by 70%?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "6485e8a2d7bd812be06e7758743e4a177554d53e806727e80635bda70ea03891", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A film produced in Taiwan wins the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film, (b) The United States holds a presidential election resulting in a new president, and (c) Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:8", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The complete R body gives both antecedents only a January 1, 2028 upper bound, while the corresponding earlier fields and conjunction include October 1, 2024 starts. R itself has the same upper-bound-only wording in the conditional and conjunction.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 8, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "a6cee38b-98c7-4cb6-949c-af9589bbaeff", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if a film primarily produced in Taiwan wins the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film at any Academy Awards ceremony held between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The win must be officially announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 8, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "d37a9081-4f69-4bf5-b671-30a169235a8d", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: A film primarily produced in Taiwan wins the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film at any Academy Awards ceremony held between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The win must be officially announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Then, will the United States hold a presidential election resulting in a new president before January 1, 2028? The question will resolve as 'Yes' if, within this timeframe, the United States holds a presidential election that results in the election of a new president, who must be officially confirmed by the relevant U.S. election authorities and reported by major news outlets. If the condition is not met, the question resolves as N/A." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 8, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "9b404256-1338-4290-b80a-f3ccb8933cf9", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A film primarily produced in Taiwan wins the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film, with the win officially announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences; and (b) The United States holds a presidential election resulting in a new president, with the new president officially confirmed by the relevant U.S. election authorities and reported by major news outlets.\n\nThen, will Brazil reduce deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels before January 1, 2028? The deforestation data must be verified by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) or another reputable environmental monitoring organization." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 8, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "74faaefb-ad5a-4aa0-9a39-1c4947d8ffaa", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met before January 1, 2028: (a) A film primarily produced in Taiwan wins the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film at any Academy Awards ceremony held between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the win officially announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences; (b) The United States holds a presidential election between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, resulting in the election of a new president, with the new president officially confirmed by the relevant U.S. election authorities and reported by major news outlets; and (c) Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels before January 1, 2028, with the deforestation data verified by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) or another reputable environmental monitoring organization." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Restore the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for P and Q in R_given_P_and_Q. Preserve the existing R window." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:9", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "fbf1bf520124e7e46b2b1930c64dc6a767c0f0e2f761043d2e916abc40a4d50e", "code": "us_involving_collective_defense_commitment", "reason": "Source explicitly requires a NATO member invoking Article 5, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent campaign disposition for a collective-defense commitment involving US foreign/defense policy; no individual US member action is claimed to be written in the source.", "source_quote": "Will a NATO member country invoke Article 5 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "c70f45b98739b439194376baaf65446ffdbaa9c21cb168026c81d4df295d9984", "code": "us_involving_collective_defense_commitment", "reason": "Source explicitly requires a NATO member invoking Article 5, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent campaign disposition for a collective-defense commitment involving US foreign/defense policy; no individual US member action is claimed to be written in the source.", "source_quote": "Conditional on a NATO member country invoking Article 5 before January 1, 2028, will Brazil's GDP growth rate exceed 3% for any calendar year between 2025 and 2027?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "8cbdf2871b55322c4c8907b2042f2f18879e44404c13349167964e81834f2b27", "code": "us_involving_collective_defense_commitment", "reason": "Source explicitly requires a NATO member invoking Article 5, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent campaign disposition for a collective-defense commitment involving US foreign/defense policy; no individual US member action is claimed to be written in the source.", "source_quote": "Given both a NATO member invokes Article 5 and Brazil's GDP growth exceeds 3% in a year, will China achieve net positive energy from nuclear fusion by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "ef733a09c181a1e1fc6afddfa4dc19f44fc5f25acda1a6fbf1603acf15239b78", "code": "us_involving_collective_defense_commitment", "reason": "Source explicitly requires a NATO member invoking Article 5, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent campaign disposition for a collective-defense commitment involving US foreign/defense policy; no individual US member action is claimed to be written in the source.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A NATO member country invokes Article 5, (b) Brazil's GDP growth rate exceeds 3% for any calendar year between 2025 and 2027, and (c) China achieves net positive energy output from a nuclear fusion reactor?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:10", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "P and the conjunction use a creation-date lower bound for P; Q_given_P instead uses now, and the full R premise drops the start altogether. The R premise also omits Q's October 1, 2024 lower bound and the explicit comparison to existing processes. A reduction threshold without the same baseline need not describe the same quantity.", "finding_codes": [ "changed_temporal_anchor", "missing_event_lower_bound", "missing_quantity_baseline" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 10, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "cc35d0bf-99dd-447f-846e-f4254109d8ce", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if a member country of NATO holds a national referendum specifically on the issue of NATO membership between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028. The referendum must be officially recorded and the results certified by the relevant national election authorities." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 10, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "3b289daf-1496-4883-9f0c-bda1e15a6692", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: A member country of NATO holds a national referendum on NATO membership between now and January 1, 2028. The referendum must be officially recorded and the results certified by the relevant national election authorities.\n\nThen, is the following also true? A new chemical process that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% compared to existing processes is commercially implemented between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The implementation must be documented in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or confirmed by an authorized governmental body.\n\nResolution criteria: If the condition regarding the NATO referendum is met, the question resolves based on the implementation of the chemical process. If the condition is not met, the question resolves as N/A." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 10, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "b7f8e46c-e3c3-436a-beee-d787f23a6ff9", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Before January 1, 2028, (a) a member country of NATO holds a national referendum on NATO membership, and (b) a new chemical process that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% is commercially implemented. Then, will China announce the development of a commercial nuclear fusion reactor before January 1, 2028?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n- For the condition: (a) The NATO referendum must be officially recorded and results certified by the national election authorities. (b) The new chemical process must be documented in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or confirmed by an authorized governmental body.\n- For the outcome: The Chinese government or a Chinese energy company must publicly announce the development of a commercial nuclear fusion reactor, with the announcement reported by major news outlets and confirmed by official Chinese sources, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 10, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "c2184901-1fdf-45f1-88ea-2f435ae0fa30", "source_part": "body", "quote": "(a) A member country of NATO must hold a national referendum specifically on the issue of NATO membership between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028. The referendum must be officially recorded and the results certified by the relevant national election authorities.\n\n(b) A new chemical process that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% compared to existing processes must be commercially implemented between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The implementation must be documented in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or confirmed by an authorized governmental body.\n\n(c) The Chinese government or a Chinese energy company must publicly announce the development of a commercial nuclear fusion reactor between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The announcement must be reported by major news outlets and confirmed by official Chinese sources." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Use P's source creation-date anchor for P in both conditional premises. In the R premise, reproduce Q's October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 implementation window and its comparison to existing processes. Resolve any creation-date calendar value from source metadata." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:11", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "e5262b6d438162d282f6bb09c811381f3cb8a641fd7a5e7e56076a8f637bf721", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the EU mandating electric vehicle adoption targets, will the US House pass nuclear energy legislation by 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "3de4954efbf12754cef11eb466dcb9ff09e353976c31ab4ef57769b909ddbc32", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the EU mandates EV targets and US House advances nuclear tech, will Canada lead a Mars mission by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "a616c2e571c10caef669823af6626e86c0586821281b907940b8882003875a51", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The European Union implements a policy mandating electric vehicle adoption targets for member states, (b) The US House of Representatives passes legislation to advance nuclear energy technology, and (c) Canada establishes its own space agency-led mission to Mars?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:12", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "f59afe5fd641fac6b4f2596330cf6d8bd23299015428da73d8cd743a2ad14237", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will a chemist be elected to the US Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "707278d62607464f950de0722c76815b073e5b887f6c83d90a9904eecaa93d1e", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given a chemist is elected to the US Congress before January 1, 2028, will an international policy framework for antibiotic resistance be adopted by 50 countries by then?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "a378468077a152d87b5f5596c2e57bca85de525acc1233b867e47ce500e51546", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Conditional on both a chemist being elected to the US Congress and 50 countries adopting a policy on antibiotic-resistant bacteria by 2028, will the US Senate have at least 55 Democratic members after the 2026 midterms?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "11d2fef962ba5c8c84ea464a7d9bb33cd26cd4a75f5bc1e26f9f9c2fb55e677e", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A chemist is elected to the US Congress, (b) At least 50 countries adopt an international policy framework for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and (c) The US Senate has at least 55 Democratic members after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:13", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "40df09c87d22109d5177555714dccd4505482ea340799c7592d3f65481b48f70", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States implement a nationwide policy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "473f1b575f09c55c919f635748559bde4558cedb429d6a439354a2600d935c25", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the US implementing a nationwide net-zero carbon policy by 2028, will the US House change by more than 10 seats in 2026?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "3f75a36a0c15357d1dc5b00aedac2589b2ecd79c5fbabac58dd6fd39f259d900", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given both a US net-zero policy by 2050 and a major shift in the US House, will a company achieve a 50% reduction in neural network training time by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "a87e9bfa4304e4818a20e577416de34855cc5b3d35bf042d0e5bfa3fa4ee5279", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur: (a) The United States implements a nationwide policy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028, (b) The composition of the US House of Representatives changes by more than 10 seats in the 2026 elections, and (c) A publicly traded company achieves a technological breakthrough in machine learning that reduces training time for neural networks by at least 50% before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:14", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "cf93fb7c148b2f7747d7b417a9881b0ae38f89f66a641385c61517dec155b89c", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given Australia enacts a nationwide policy to phase out coal-fired power plants before 2028, will the US Supreme Court rule on an energy policy case before 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "11fdb9911ed6e37e0fd68e14f9d3e4c607440622ce96df9882c54b62190ef3df", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given both Australia phases out coal and US Supreme Court rules on energy policy, will the US pass a federal AI energy law by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "ef789b7f4ef3a48f7e8b4d98146d167259c4ffad76987d3078c6e8577293373a", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Australia enacts a nationwide policy to phase out coal-fired power plants, (b) the US Supreme Court rules on an energy policy case, and (c) the United States passes a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "a2f13a249a2e6bffd1a061d9783a5f2d2b86434a33ef8c9bac3d1c056970054b", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given both OpenAI releases a carbon-reducing tool and France completes a nuclear plant by 2028, will a US Congress member endorse machine learning for legislation by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "e63ef6973d3d6645e6f024c4cb5d7cf9924ae3bdc8a1a28ac1e9ca25530a7439", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) OpenAI releases a tool aimed at reducing carbon emissions in any industry, (2) France completes the construction of a new nuclear power plant, and (3) A member of the US Congress publicly endorses the use of machine learning for legislative decision-making?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:15", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R body omits the October 1, 2024 lower bounds from P and Q. Earlier fields and the conjunction give those bounds. R itself consistently uses a creation-date lower bound in both occurrences.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 15, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "f814af0e-7bed-4122-91c0-90d9687c2515", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, OpenAI releases a tool specifically designed to reduce carbon emissions in any industry. The tool must be publicly announced and available for use, with its primary function being the reduction of carbon emissions." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 15, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "2bdc9af1-e409-464b-b78c-6b45dcc102c2", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: OpenAI releases a tool specifically designed to reduce carbon emissions in any industry between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The tool must be publicly announced and available for use, with its primary function being the reduction of carbon emissions.\n\nThen, will France complete the construction of a new nuclear power plant before January 1, 2028? This resolves as 'Yes' if a new nuclear power plant in France is officially completed and begins operations between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The completion must be confirmed by the French government or a reputable energy organization." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 15, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "f61df70a-4a6a-465f-abac-3cbcd5f85323", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question explores the conditional scenario where both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) OpenAI releases a tool specifically designed to reduce carbon emissions in any industry, publicly announced and available for use, with its primary function being the reduction of carbon emissions; (b) A new nuclear power plant in France is officially completed and begins operations, confirmed by the French government or a reputable energy organization.\n\nGiven these conditions are met, will a current member of the US Congress publicly endorse the use of machine learning for legislative decision-making before January 1, 2028? The endorsement must occur between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028, in an official capacity such as during a congressional session, in a press release, or on the member's official website." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 15, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "c6dde713-6572-47a0-b22c-0f0de1dd463d", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met: (1) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, OpenAI releases a tool specifically designed to reduce carbon emissions in any industry. The tool must be publicly announced and available for use, with its primary function being the reduction of carbon emissions. (2) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, a new nuclear power plant in France is officially completed and begins operations. The completion must be confirmed by the French government or a reputable energy organization. (3) Between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028, a current member of the US Congress publicly endorses the use of machine learning for legislative decision-making. The endorsement must be made in an official capacity, such as during a congressional session, in a press release, or on the member's official website." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Restore the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for both premises in R_given_P_and_Q. Preserve R's shared creation-date window without guessing its calendar anchor." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:17", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "47970f67d9c3e267813dd5e0205dcec4b7e8f867c7bbbac113d572846bc55df5", "code": "us_environmental_regulatory_approval_decision", "reason": "Full criteria require environmental impact assessment approval of a US nuclear plant by the EPA or another relevant US governmental body. This is a US regulatory-decision target, distinct from the accompanying EIA energy-production measurement.", "source_quote": "Given both a candidate commits to microbiology research funding and renewable energy reaches 50% in the US, will a new nuclear plant receive environmental approval by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "1679c21f8d45582ace915c7e71051238f319004b8d2805895e3815819661e601", "code": "us_environmental_regulatory_approval_decision", "reason": "Full criteria require environmental impact assessment approval of a US nuclear plant by the EPA or another relevant US governmental body. This is a US regulatory-decision target, distinct from the accompanying EIA energy-production measurement.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) a candidate in a national election campaign publicly commits to funding microbiology research, (b) renewable energy sources account for at least 50% of the United States' total energy production, and (c) a new nuclear power plant in the United States receives an environmental impact assessment approval?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:17", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "R_given_P_and_Q asks for R before January 1, 2028 with no October 1, 2024 lower bound; the conjunction explicitly requires R between those dates. P and Q are consistently reproduced.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 17, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "a3fbd1ec-4778-4037-a625-b7c26b6852d9", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: (a) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, a candidate in a national election campaign publicly commits to funding microbiology research, and this commitment is officially documented and reported by reputable news sources. (b) Renewable energy sources account for at least 50% of the total energy production in the United States for any calendar year between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with data verified by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) or another reputable energy statistics organization. Given these conditions, will a new nuclear power plant in the United States receive an environmental impact assessment approval before January 1, 2028? This approval must be documented and confirmed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or another relevant governmental body." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 17, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "f0a266d5-a06f-4cad-a5bf-c8f59b1f2141", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met: (a) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, any candidate in a national election campaign publicly commits to funding microbiology research, with the commitment being officially documented and reported by reputable news sources. (b) Renewable energy sources (such as wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal) account for at least 50% of the total energy production in the United States for any calendar year between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the data verified by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) or another reputable energy statistics organization. (c) A new nuclear power plant in the United States receives an environmental impact assessment approval between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the approval documented and confirmed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or another relevant governmental body." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Add between October 1, 2024 and January 1, 2028 to the R approval outcome in R_given_P_and_Q, matching the conjunction." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:18", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "Q_given_P requires Q to occur in the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window and separately be confirmed. The conjunction instead dates the confirmation within that window. The R premise gives confirmation only a January 1, 2028 upper cutoff and omits the October start. Event time and confirmation time are not interchangeable predicates.", "finding_codes": [ "changed_event_vs_confirmation_window", "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 18, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "242d5ce2-873f-4a78-8641-43944622a0b5", "source_part": "body", "quote": "The reduction must occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, and be confirmed by official reports from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) or another reputable environmental monitoring organization." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 18, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "4eaf70fb-25e6-4cd8-9da2-814d976f09ae", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: (a) France's 2027 presidential election results in a candidate winning with over 60% of the vote, confirmed by the French Ministry of the Interior and published in the official election results, AND (b) Brazil achieves a 50% reduction in deforestation rates in the Amazon compared to 2023 levels, confirmed by official reports from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) or another reputable environmental monitoring organization by January 1, 2028. \n\nThen, will Australia implement a national policy specifically targeting net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the policy being officially signed into law and documented in the Australian Government's official records?" }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 18, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "25c0ab95-6160-4ab0-8c8e-57f7332d959c", "source_part": "body", "quote": "(1) France's 2027 presidential election will result in a candidate winning with over 60% of the vote if the result is officially confirmed by the French Ministry of the Interior and published in the official election results. (2) Brazil will achieve a 50% reduction in deforestation rates in the Amazon compared to 2023 levels if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the reduction is confirmed by official reports from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) or another reputable environmental monitoring organization. (3) Australia will implement a national policy specifically targeting net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 if, at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the policy is officially signed into law and documented in the Australian Government's official records." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Choose Q_given_P's existing event-occurrence window as the shared definition and copy it into the R premise and conjunction, retaining confirmation as a separate requirement. If a confirmation deadline is intended, specify that additional requirement identically in every Q occurrence." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:19", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "P requires a launch of a spacecraft that reaches the Moon, with launch and Moon landing confirmation. The Q and R premises require a successful launch to the Moon without the reaching/landing criteria; the conjunction includes reaching but omits the explicit landing confirmation. The Q outcome and R premise give Q only an upper bound, while the conjunction gives Q an October 1, 2024 start. The R premise also drops P's October start.", "finding_codes": [ "changed_event_predicate", "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 19, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "819c32b0-6319-49a7-b3a1-9ba14b81b515", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the United Kingdom successfully launches a spacecraft that reaches the Moon. The launch and Moon landing must be confirmed by a reputable space agency or space tracking organization such as NASA or ESA." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 19, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "a35b805b-7210-4832-874c-0461c16aac95", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: The United Kingdom successfully launches a spacecraft to the Moon between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with confirmation from a reputable space agency or space tracking organization such as NASA or ESA. Then, will any country announce the establishment of a permanent human settlement on the Moon before January 1, 2028? The announcement must come from an official government source and include plans for continuous human habitation." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 19, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "19fe50db-0f70-4695-bd00-909d5f910c90", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Before January 1, 2028, (a) the United Kingdom successfully launches a spacecraft to the Moon, confirmed by a reputable space agency or space tracking organization such as NASA or ESA, and (b) any country announces the establishment of a permanent human settlement on the Moon, with the announcement coming from an official government source and including plans for continuous human habitation. \n\nGiven these conditions, will India install at least 200 GW of renewable energy capacity, as reported by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, before 2028-01-01? \n\nResolution criteria: The question resolves as 'Yes' if India installs at least 200 GW of renewable energy capacity, officially recognized and documented by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, at any point before 2028-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves as 'No'. If the condition is not met, it resolves as 'N/A'." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 19, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "3aab8331-7df3-4051-916e-96a1ba8946af", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following occur: (a) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the United Kingdom successfully launches a spacecraft that reaches the Moon, confirmed by a reputable space agency or space tracking organization such as NASA or ESA. (b) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, any country announces the establishment of a permanent human settlement on the Moon, with the announcement coming from an official government source and including plans for continuous human habitation. (c) India installs at least 200 GW of renewable energy capacity, as reported by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, at any point before 2028-01-01. The installation must be officially recognized and documented by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Use P's complete reaches-the-Moon and launch-and-landing confirmation criteria wherever P appears, with its October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window. Add the conjunction's October 1, 2024 lower bound to Q in both conditional fields. Preserve R's currently shared upper-bound-only window." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:20", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "f9b6cb363312270a1ce588e141953401d9ee0901e88f6b363435e9665b72659f", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given both France's GDP exceeds 3 trillion USD for a year and Ukraine's forested area increases by 5%, will the US mandate a 30% greenhouse gas reduction by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "6acf3f1a3bbd31212ff236fa9bf32557279d19d1733a16886525960b74203479", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (1) France's annual GDP exceeds 3 trillion USD for at least one year, (2) Ukraine's forested area increases by at least 5%, and (3) the US Congress enacts a federal law mandating a nationwide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30%?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:20", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "R_given_P_and_Q requires a reduction threshold without identifying a reference baseline. The conjunction restricts the same threshold to comparison with levels recorded in 2023. The threshold therefore is not attached to an identical quantity in both fields.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_quantity_baseline" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 20, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "6535fbf3-b52e-4b30-b5ad-3b2d765c37c1", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Then, will the US Congress enact a federal law mandating a nationwide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% before January 1, 2028?" }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 20, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "15890706-a67f-4740-be52-70290d2ae6ad", "source_part": "body", "quote": "(3) between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the US Congress enacts a federal law that mandates a nationwide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% compared to the levels recorded in 2023." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Add compared to the levels recorded in 2023 to the R outcome in R_given_P_and_Q, preserving its existing threshold, enactment window and documentation requirement." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:21", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R conditional gives the outcome only a January 1, 2028 upper bound. The conjunction's opening explicitly applies an October 1, 2024 lower bound to all three events, including that outcome. The premise bounds are preserved by within the same time frame.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 21, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "083e777c-34b5-4876-94e4-46f0351425d4", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Both (a) Mexico passes legislation allowing genetic editing of human embryos for non-medical trait enhancement between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, and (b) the European Union implements regulations governing the ethical use of AI in healthcare within the same time frame. Given these conditions, will a genetically modified crop be approved for commercial use in the European Union before January 1, 2028? The crop approval must be officially documented and published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 21, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "a7b440c8-1e2a-4e26-9622-71b57efc9f94", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (1) Mexico passes legislation that explicitly allows genetic editing of human embryos for non-medical trait enhancement. The legislation must be officially enacted and published in Mexico's official legal records. (2) The European Union officially implements regulations specifically governing the ethical use of artificial intelligence in healthcare. The implementation must be confirmed through official EU documentation or announcements. (3) A genetically modified crop is approved for commercial use in the European Union. The approval must be officially documented and published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Add the October 1, 2024 lower bound to the R outcome in R_given_P_and_Q, matching the conjunction; retain the existing approval documentation criterion." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:22", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "b337096e83a7ec6cd2acefe84e767496c951b100d962cde693756c2829eace86", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "If Amazon launches a commercial space tourism service before January 1, 2028, will the US House of Representatives pass a bill to impose new economic sanctions on China before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "79f4834f19ffa36ad1b1ba65b93004448d1fd6abe70d33ab28f683ede5469964", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given both Amazon launches space tourism and the US House sanctions China by 2028, will any NATO member withdraw by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "6ee4473aee83471993b83bec315ca9de8f5306732d8f2cf97c7525e399e354e7", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Amazon launches a commercial space tourism service, (b) The US House of Representatives passes a bill to impose new economic sanctions on China, and (c) Any NATO member state officially withdraws from the alliance?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:22", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R body gives P and Q only January 1, 2028 upper bounds. P and Q_given_P use creation-date lower bounds, and the conjunction explicitly identifies those starts as October 1, 2024. The R outcome has no start date in either occurrence.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 22, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "779bc20d-5719-45f1-bd7d-40fe1cfdc8e4", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Amazon launches a commercial space tourism service between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028. The service must be publicly available for purchase and operational, with at least one successful flight carrying paying customers." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 22, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "dc9285fe-8923-4e5e-85c9-4cdb4c19fe84", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Amazon launches a commercial space tourism service between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028. The service must be publicly available for purchase and operational, with at least one successful flight carrying paying customers. Then, will the US House of Representatives pass a bill to impose new economic sanctions on China before January 1, 2028? This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between the creation date of this question (October 1, 2024) and January 1, 2028, the US House of Representatives passes a bill that imposes new economic sanctions on China. The bill must be officially passed by a majority vote in the House and recorded in the official congressional records." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 22, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "790fec92-3534-461e-82f3-efbd12424476", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: \n\n(a) Amazon launches a commercial space tourism service before January 1, 2028. The service must be publicly available for purchase and operational, with at least one successful flight carrying paying customers.\n\n(b) The US House of Representatives passes a bill to impose new economic sanctions on China before January 1, 2028. The bill must be officially passed by a majority vote in the House and recorded in the official congressional records.\n\nThen, is it true that any NATO member state will officially withdraw from the alliance before January 1, 2028? This requires an official notification of withdrawal and completion of the withdrawal process, confirmed by official NATO documentation." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 22, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "a11b4de2-7dd2-457f-8ebc-bb6131638c07", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n(a) Amazon launches a commercial space tourism service between the creation date of this question (October 1, 2024) and January 1, 2028. The service must be publicly available for purchase and operational, with at least one successful flight carrying paying customers.\n\n(b) The US House of Representatives passes a bill that imposes new economic sanctions on China between the creation date of this question (October 1, 2024) and January 1, 2028. The bill must be officially passed by a majority vote in the House and recorded in the official congressional records.\n\n(c) Any NATO member state officially notifies NATO of its intention to withdraw from the alliance and completes the withdrawal process before January 1, 2028. The withdrawal must be confirmed by official NATO documentation." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "In R_given_P_and_Q, copy the P and Q creation-date lower bounds, explicitly October 1, 2024 as identified by the conjunction. Preserve the shared upper-bound-only window for R." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:23", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "Q_given_P omits P's October 1, 2024 start. P identifies that creation date explicitly, and both the R premise and conjunction preserve it. The full Q body never restores the omitted start.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 23, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "7d6a9607-6adf-41dc-9e65-cc24f7d017ed", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between the creation date (2024-10-01) and January 1, 2028, the Government of India officially implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy. The policy must be formally announced by the Government of India and documented in official government publications or press releases." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 23, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "cadd1185-1a96-4edb-8e56-7b11d46c02d4", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: India implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy before January 1, 2028. This policy must be formally announced by the Government of India and documented in official government publications or press releases. Then, will Brazil's GDP growth rate exceed 3% for any calendar year between 2025 and 2027? The GDP growth rate must be based on the official annual GDP data reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 23, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "6bff8023-b7c3-4c46-83f6-0165332e9c60", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following are true: (a) The Government of India officially implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, as announced and documented in official government publications or press releases. (b) Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), exceeds 3% for any calendar year between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2027, based on IBGE's official annual GDP data.\n\nGiven these conditions, will Taiwan's GDP growth rate exceed 5% in any calendar year between 2024 and 2027? The GDP growth rate will be based on official annual data published by Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics or a similarly authoritative body. The event must occur between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 23, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "346e7158-309f-4c57-ba4d-abc34a7ae1f0", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met: (a) The Government of India officially implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The policy must be formally announced and documented in official government publications or press releases. (b) Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), exceeds 3% for any calendar year between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2027, based on IBGE's official annual GDP data. (c) Taiwan's GDP growth rate exceeds 5% in any calendar year between 2024 and 2027, based on official annual data published by Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics or a similarly authoritative body. The event must occur between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Copy P's October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window into the premise of Q_given_P, retaining its existing substantive and documentation criteria." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:24", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R body gives its premises and outcome only January 1, 2028 upper bounds. P and Q_given_P give P and Q October 1, 2024 starts, and the conjunction explicitly applies that start to all three events.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 24, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "c83c7b00-af68-4d2b-a8f4-e853bc0542da", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Japan successfully lands a spacecraft on the Moon between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The landing must be confirmed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and reported by reputable space news sources." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 24, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "523a2b44-bbc6-4fff-b500-f531fea83e9a", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Japan successfully lands a spacecraft on the Moon between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The landing must be confirmed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and reported by reputable space news sources.\n\nThen, will a genetic modification be developed and verified by a recognized scientific authority to reduce the harmful effects of radiation exposure between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028? The development must be documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized scientific authority." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 24, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "e2ea0504-0515-43c9-a418-2cf93f7b09a3", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following occurs before January 1, 2028: \n1. Japan successfully lands a spacecraft on the Moon, with the landing confirmed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and reported by reputable space news sources.\n2. A genetic modification is developed and verified by a recognized scientific authority to reduce the harmful effects of radiation exposure, with the development documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized scientific authority.\n\nGiven these events, will Japan announce the development of a new space station module in collaboration with NASA before January 1, 2028? The announcement must be made by an official Japanese government agency or NASA and include specific details about the module's development and intended use." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 24, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "61c5f3c0-a5c0-4eca-8b34-6c6847bdf9df", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) Japan successfully lands a spacecraft on the Moon, with the landing confirmed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and reported by reputable space news sources. (b) A genetic modification is developed and verified by a recognized scientific authority to reduce the harmful effects of radiation exposure, with the development documented in scientific literature and verified by a recognized scientific authority. (c) Japan officially announces the development of a new space station module in collaboration with NASA. The announcement must be made by an official Japanese government agency or NASA and include specific details about the module's development and intended use." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "In R_given_P_and_Q, copy the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for each premise and the outcome, preserving the verification and announcement criteria." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:25", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "766270305e21e45f37b0953ea456be5ae8741e4af9dc2eba69d467e0d87319bd", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given a US-based company's machine learning model wins the Turing Award by 2028, will the US House pass nuclear energy legislation by 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "b30e191e32d6de5a95daed91d42ce88ff604f60847531c97863a1cecb49f0745", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on both a US-based ML model winning the Turing Award and US legislation advancing nuclear energy before 2028, will an AI system be credited for a scientific discovery in Canada before 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "9dc0a548567f4bd5065cd3a341b1c2481b66425288940813e81ae9b76c99ab90", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A machine learning model developed by a US-based company wins the Turing Award, (b) The US House of Representatives passes legislation to advance nuclear energy technology, and (c) An AI system is publicly credited for a scientific discovery in Canada?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:25", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R body omits the October 1, 2024 starts attached to P and Q in the earlier fields and to all three events in the conjunction.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 25, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "b7db121b-84cb-4fb1-8129-89b07b2609a9", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if a machine learning model developed by a company headquartered in the United States wins the Turing Award between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The award must be officially announced by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) and documented on their website." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 25, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "16a131e2-9fd6-4aa7-9b05-8dbeb4935e09", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: A machine learning model developed by a company headquartered in the United States wins the Turing Award between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The award must be officially announced by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) and documented on their website. Then, is it true that the US House of Representatives will pass legislation specifically aimed at advancing nuclear energy technology between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028? The legislation must be officially passed and recorded in the official records of the US House of Representatives." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 25, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "016628d8-8e65-49b4-9d72-13d54ed9cf54", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A machine learning model developed by a US-based company wins the Turing Award, officially announced by the ACM and documented on their website. (b) The US House of Representatives passes legislation specifically aimed at advancing nuclear energy technology, officially recorded in the US House of Representatives' records. Given this, will an AI system be publicly credited for a scientific discovery in Canada before January 1, 2028? The credit must be confirmed through official announcements and reported by reputable scientific journals or news sources." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 25, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "b8216455-3df7-44f2-aca3-b53473a06233", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) A machine learning model developed by a company headquartered in the United States wins the Turing Award. The award must be officially announced by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) and documented on their website. (b) The US House of Representatives passes legislation specifically aimed at advancing nuclear energy technology. The legislation must be officially passed and recorded in the official records of the US House of Representatives. (c) An AI system is publicly credited for a scientific discovery in Canada. The credit must be confirmed through official announcements and reported by reputable scientific journals or news sources." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "In R_given_P_and_Q, restore the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for both premises and the outcome. Copy company headquartered in the United States into the P premise to match the exact source criterion." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:26", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "P, Q_given_P and the conjunction anchor P to the creation date of this question. The R premise instead says between now and January 1, 2028. The standalone source gives no rule equating now to the creation date, so the P event window is not fixed consistently across evaluations.", "finding_codes": [ "changed_temporal_anchor" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 26, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "89936dbf-8ce5-48bc-b7a3-583f76c110e9", "source_part": "body", "quote": "between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028" }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 26, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "8ab12a4e-57bf-4ff5-acc3-0d3810648aa7", "source_part": "body", "quote": "between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028" }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 26, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "e40cf682-fd1a-48d2-8a97-3f643fd73fb7", "source_part": "body", "quote": "(1) NASA launches a crewed mission to Mars between now and January 1, 2028, with the launch officially announced and verified by NASA and independent sources." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 26, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "a93ff1cd-f006-44db-92b2-d1ecdca0b5ef", "source_part": "body", "quote": "(1) NASA launches a crewed mission to Mars between the creation date of this question and January 1, 2028." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Replace now in the R premise with the same source creation-date anchor used by P. If rendering a fixed calendar date, resolve that date from source metadata and apply it identically to every P occurrence." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:27", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R body gives both antecedents and its outcome only January 1, 2028 upper bounds. P and Q_given_P include October 1, 2024 starts, and the conjunction explicitly applies the same start to all three events.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 27, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "d81c3a4b-45e2-45c0-86dc-978c4e526e10", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, a new chemical process for large-scale carbon capture is successfully developed and commercially implemented. The process must be verified by independent experts and reported in reputable scientific journals. Commercial implementation means that the process is being used in at least one large-scale industrial application." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 27, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "acf3c5ba-ef63-4a74-9d1b-a151ad561b35", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: A new chemical process for large-scale carbon capture is successfully developed and commercially implemented between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. This process is verified by independent experts and reported in reputable scientific journals, and it is used in at least one large-scale industrial application. Given this, will India officially implement a universal basic income (UBI) policy at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028? The policy must be enacted by the Indian government and officially published in the government's legal records." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 27, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "06fdb3d4-9993-4c44-85db-0b4e9c0c748c", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Before January 1, 2028, both (1) a new chemical process for large-scale carbon capture is successfully developed and commercially implemented, verified by independent experts and reported in reputable scientific journals, and used in at least one large-scale industrial application, and (2) India officially implements a universal basic income policy, enacted by the Indian government and published in legal records. Then, will Brazil hold a national referendum on constitutional amendments before January 1, 2028? The referendum must be officially recognized by the Brazilian government and the results published in official records." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 27, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "ad49d404-289e-4844-8ddf-449130309e37", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following conditions are met between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (1) A new chemical process for large-scale carbon capture is successfully developed and commercially implemented. The process must be verified by independent experts and reported in reputable scientific journals. Commercial implementation means that the process is being used in at least one large-scale industrial application. (2) India officially implements a universal basic income (UBI) policy. The policy must be enacted by the Indian government and officially published in the government's legal records. (3) Brazil holds a national referendum specifically on constitutional amendments. The referendum must be officially recognized by the Brazilian government and the results must be published in the country's official records." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Restore the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for both premises and the outcome in R_given_P_and_Q, preserving their substantive and documentation criteria." }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:28", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "7ee78a4b1a1db6896706c2ad57ab1ac5d8ca74a6c4796e8ed562c7390af4a00b", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given a Canadian political party includes environmental science policies as a key platform in the 2027 federal election, will the US Supreme Court rule on a case involving the entertainment industry before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "7f8001e8ca2765276d54b718182bc7546181aa877acb4be5818c65ff85da3353", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Conditional on both a major Canadian political party including environmental science policies as a key platform in the 2027 federal election and the US Supreme Court ruling on a case involving the entertainment industry before January 1, 2028, will the percentage of Americans who believe in climate change denial fall below 10% before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "f1692b47e1d3c8fbcf5486ec8c10b5e722bcdf596172bfcb50f596bb178a2669", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) A major Canadian political party includes environmental science policies as a key platform in the 2027 federal election, (b) The US Supreme Court rules on a case involving the entertainment industry, and (c) The percentage of Americans who believe in climate change denial falls below 10%?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:29", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "fb2626ff1c6fa828dca71d8072d258b78d819b82ca292b6d6b067efe1a3d21f9", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk announce a project related to nuclear fusion technology before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "e2d4fc7888805d1b663067af06f211ee567075dfdc6de37c128f130ae4217df2", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Given Elon Musk announces a nuclear fusion project, will a new chemical process neutralize nuclear waste by 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "a5fd0195fbb0b5903b43a2d75bc72c9527fbf62df583eb1f95ce2d34036bb2a6", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Given both Elon Musk announces a nuclear fusion project and a new process for neutralizing nuclear waste is implemented, will South Korea and North Korea sign a peace treaty by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "f06ec0de9fa3b47c56c247ffe34f147f90247021c7207fb319b0b571aa2e4dd0", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (1) Elon Musk announces a project related to nuclear fusion technology, (2) a new chemical process is developed and commercially implemented to safely neutralize nuclear waste, and (3) South Korea and North Korea sign a formal peace treaty?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:30", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "8dba6eae1ffccce650aaec34b732a2b73bdbdfeb9a34576a2471c0e4d37f3428", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) propose legislation regulating AI technologies before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q_given_P", "proposition_id": "1ec32afc647e436e74f59f2c7c51bfa242dcc36b9e27c740679948260364cee2", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the Democratic Party proposing AI regulation legislation, will AI be used to analyze player performance in a major soccer tournament by 2028?" }, { "field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "proposition_id": "b87d5209e53f2e1a6141ca7d744d5d13ef20dacb56d5752674afa815aa77e3f9", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given both AI regulation legislation by Democrats and AI in soccer occur, will SCOTUS rule on ACA constitutionality by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "proposition_id": "720c5eea021ec5e5cc7d3abeaa35545b2e3e814891b372851d370c03fbb10de6", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will all of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party (US) proposes legislation regulating AI technologies, (b) An AI-driven system is officially used to analyze player performance in a major international soccer tournament, and (c) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case that directly challenges the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:30", "category": "semantic", "code": "source_event_mismatch", "reason": "The full R body gives both antecedents only January 1, 2028 upper bounds, omitting the October 1, 2024 starts in P, Q_given_P and the conjunction. Its outcome already retains the full date window.", "finding_codes": [ "missing_event_lower_bound" ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 30, "question_field": "P", "question_id": "30085105-42d2-415a-931c-d8b1f8865d68", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if the Democratic Party in the United States proposes any legislation specifically aimed at regulating artificial intelligence technologies between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The proposal must be formally introduced in either the House of Representatives or the Senate and be documented in official congressional records." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 30, "question_field": "Q_given_P", "question_id": "0b5927bd-3479-4726-858b-366c638f0964", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: The Democratic Party in the United States proposes legislation specifically aimed at regulating artificial intelligence technologies between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The proposal must be formally introduced in either the House of Representatives or the Senate and be documented in official congressional records.\n\nThen, is it true that an AI-driven system will be officially used to analyze player performance in a major international soccer tournament before January 1, 2028? This will resolve as 'Yes' if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, an AI-driven system is officially used to analyze player performance in a major international soccer tournament, confirmed by an official announcement from the tournament organizers or a reputable news source." }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 30, "question_field": "R_given_P_and_Q", "question_id": "56a06735-73ba-4bad-90c6-a4751e2e7dd0", "source_part": "body", "quote": "Suppose the following is true: Both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party in the United States proposes legislation regulating artificial intelligence technologies, formally introduced in either the House of Representatives or the Senate and documented in official congressional records. (b) An AI-driven system is officially used to analyze player performance in a major international soccer tournament, confirmed by an official announcement from the tournament organizers or a reputable news source.\n\nThen, will the Supreme Court of the United States issue a ruling on a case that directly challenges the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the ruling officially documented in SCOTUS records?" }, { "source_path": "data/tuples/CondCond.jsonl", "source_line": 30, "question_field": "P_and_Q_and_R", "question_id": "f3c3b75e-7589-42b1-b403-b37d2f0c3846", "source_part": "body", "quote": "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if all of the following occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party in the United States proposes any legislation specifically aimed at regulating artificial intelligence technologies. The proposal must be formally introduced in either the House of Representatives or the Senate and be documented in official congressional records. (b) An AI-driven system is officially used to analyze player performance in a major international soccer tournament. The use of the system must be confirmed by an official announcement from the tournament organizers or a reputable news source. (c) The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issues a ruling on a case that directly challenges the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The ruling must be officially documented in SCOTUS records." } ], "proposed_repair_not_applied": "Restore the October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2028 window for both premises in R_given_P_and_Q. Preserve the outcome's existing date window." } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:4", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7e07bfde1393f0d7ea2cccbe7a39752723819f3cae87995e8ece15a31a16fa22", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate have at least 55 Democratic members after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "fc2cd7b76c5cc4b5daee18b6e85a0305fadd69bc2ddcba6f6f7a55dc21afd6e9", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate have at least 50 Democratic members after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:9", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "14cdae1e4e5b6ba0374e43f3cd1b8105143f84e689a0206f6cbe8766d22acc89", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will any U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of OpenAI or similar AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "5c8c8f538d8190eb3414ea9c55f56281c1b69da559574042fd4c13cc93a72e50", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will any U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of OpenAI or similar AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2029?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:10", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "14cdae1e4e5b6ba0374e43f3cd1b8105143f84e689a0206f6cbe8766d22acc89", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will any U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of OpenAI or similar AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "3e218ad107493bd2051fa679985a281599bc1c6dcddb69febab8757f7413b1be", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will any U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:11", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "64305b79717ef3e4461c9734777d3a9dcf86bb18adb7e5785d3941c474df395c", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will an executive from OpenAI hold a federal government position in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "7b237c34f01cfb3f4b9dd74a31560beff209b3158347b7ce4eba08f77ef9173a", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will an executive from OpenAI hold a federal government position in the United States before January 1, 2029?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:12", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "64305b79717ef3e4461c9734777d3a9dcf86bb18adb7e5785d3941c474df395c", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will an executive from OpenAI hold a federal government position in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "2c85fb3a2f8ae2dba2956e48563de34ef5a0dba11c8d7c0e63d4c057f8f1c559", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will an executive from OpenAI hold a government position in the United States before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:17", "category": "semantic", "code": "implication_threshold_ambiguous", "fields": [ "P", "cons_P" ], "reason": "The two full resolution criteria say a 50% reduction and a 40% reduction, without at least. Exactly a 50% reduction does not imply exactly a 40% reduction. The intended threshold interpretation cannot be assumed for an exact implication check.", "source_question_ids": { "P": "c9410711-a7ce-4ca4-b4cd-b3bce72f33d6", "cons_P": "d7b7fbf3-5701-483d-a0c9-bfe46873ceb3" } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:20", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "6f50322b860dc9c9c9b67ca1eee34db0dd38d884a62a7d6b548af2c7fa605e7f", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2029?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:22", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "243ddfe35c86f56c11d846b33a3489b75265b4533d5a86b97aa7df8f31e949b7", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk host or co-host Saturday Night Live (SNL) again before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "48950b124f4cbb3e57b7f2ba9f183497c9315cbb785e6002d6cc82cb1bd27cd8", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk host or co-host Saturday Night Live (SNL) again before January 1, 2030?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:26", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "c6e24a5d1aa7f103153b14af4018aca81d3fe7ec4c0a85759de30505d14f2a90", "code": "named_us_political_party_candidate_outcome", "reason": "Full criteria explicitly identify a Democratic Party (US) candidate as the Grammy outcome target. The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will a Democratic Party candidate win the Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "cons_P", "proposition_id": "de23c5f5ff425ef982e1e4b855a8a6e7129221644d6e05536e6724ec6d903b16", "code": "named_us_political_party_candidate_outcome", "reason": "Full criteria explicitly identify a Democratic Party (US) candidate as the Grammy outcome target. The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will a Democratic Party candidate win the Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album before January 1, 2029?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ConsequenceChecker:27", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "c6e24a5d1aa7f103153b14af4018aca81d3fe7ec4c0a85759de30505d14f2a90", "code": "named_us_political_party_candidate_outcome", "reason": "Full criteria explicitly identify a Democratic Party (US) candidate as the Grammy outcome target. The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will a Democratic Party candidate win the Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:1", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7a9fc91ba643511a734241e8e0ce17a69b5bc44000f039e3b11df188d772e359", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "cd39802cfda201132e5989d79aaebf472f7e308784eebdb39dd1a49c69781525", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given the Democratic Party gains a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections, will the global space industry generate annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "85f3071901a4561c86d8b1e1c50bf57328235f078a9f440e50c087bddd974e92", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the Democratic Party failing to gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections, will the global space industry generate annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:2", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5aa69b6a856acf54143fe79c39a247a5189f8c0cbc3ccc5c5d792e81246903e1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "4bdfcf7e4e3c797b59fb6b65badc4e704d459f117711ff7be3ea12d47e8292fe", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress pass a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "bec70df467b6588b8ead016af8520aca5671eccff9412dcacaf72ffa434893a8", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US Congress mandates net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate bill by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "6c26531b4fafe256452446b06a0a1b8decdbf6ebb3041a49f634372dd94de715", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the US Congress not passing a federal net-zero carbon law by 2050, will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change bill by 2028?" } ], "overlapping_semantic_exclusion": { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:2", "category": "semantic", "code": "conditional_event_window_changed_and_title_mismatch", "reason": "Base P requires Senate climate legislation during October1,2024–January1,2028; both conditional outcome bodies only require passage beforeJanuary1,2028, admitting earlier bills. The negative-condition title additionally places the law passage deadline at2050 although its body uses2028.", "reviewed_source_fields": [ "P", "Q", "P_given_Q", "P_given_not_Q" ] } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:4", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "70e5eb5da3d65be4a04470fde19c35287d1929cc3fd8eccf6f09c59f79714aef", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "540d399fc26ac37f6cd1c9e1a660f8e56846cfa8f6fa0ef413d021298f6b101c", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given Canada implements a nationwide AI policy by 2028, will the US regulate AI in energy management by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "8be6bf24ace58cbb2d1ec3221441dc42fb66b28750336b9ec34bd735be805ae6", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given Canada does not implement a nationwide AI policy before January 1, 2028, will the US pass a federal law regulating AI in energy management before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:5", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "afdb00a364d6ca412f5ebbd42e30e73ea2170d21fa04f8654839b24e946895d6", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States officially implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "d0656cdb8c5cedffa7c986283ee9f5eec0f0ad6fcd88f98bed9f60c1f401de53", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US bans single-use plastic bags nationwide before 2028, will Canada hold a national referendum on energy independence before 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "b9ae1a54998dd4c01c5f4a38d2e701c10904e11661875b79e44dd6fb26e53b4e", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "If the US does not ban single-use plastic bags nationwide by 2028, will Canada hold a referendum on energy independence by 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:8", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "bdb12ed2fd6a18f16a23f7bf425ac3e38305f2cd3f4b0e59bf568a7f43dd3913", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d2930926661de3e3e368cfc3d34d38d95dede3e580fed007866afbeb11eafb65", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Republican Party (US) propose a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "7e83947527e11f61efa44c5f66f28524d1f9b86d2567e866bb74394d9a60ba09", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the Republican Party proposing a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion, will the Democratic Party introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "42d04b3660534598456f923f594eeca8bcfeaaf8fa216247849db82817b25ddf", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the Republican Party never proposes a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion before 2028, will the Democratic Party introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy before 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:14", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d24d016d810f81de5ef98a3b58cf66708eb699e1ea9e8bd1c03e27c1afdf6798", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "4a598d405e4058925253f985c4dd71e0e215da907edf38c92eae5e200d8cd6f1", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Conditional on NATO officially adopting a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028, will NASA announce a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "0bce6f8ee9e0cae1b8e6e97c0dbf185ceeb3812c654a56fb989874b3d6a4128d", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Given NATO does not officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028, will NASA announce a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "a8c28a7715bfb0362c3714e7cb55e277888a600398f5cf7beea521c2088d57e1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "dcdb22e3827861b3669f40c4d1e027fc4d7c527c3bd9b03f50b83ccabdbb4cd4", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Will a new environmentally friendly drug be approved by the FDA for treating a major disease before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "8c8557091a5a7199a7059590ae805914e21fbb510cd331a0c7afbea3e762bbac", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given an environmentally friendly drug is FDA approved for a major disease by 2028, will a biotech candidate win a US gubernatorial election by then?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "bbd3147fec8bfd7f2be8551f2156f1e65b5d24315926e7133a20c4c6f1a3a24f", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given no new environmentally friendly drug is approved by the FDA before January 1, 2028, will a candidate with a biotechnology background win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:17", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "ee52744f71fef4ce54e0bdd30d105a56b81ca1975bd2383307974ec7aaeb6df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will California pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "b641eb55f2fb46096b47532799c14fe7e711f039b34fb41e376ae138018bcc0b", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "f178ad6e6f76a530c3bb6ca6c534338a61332415b36b57774a72f46b06e34920", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given the Supreme Court rules on AI regulation, will California ban gasoline-powered vehicle sales by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "f2e9febbaccd8ea69754729a6a82618e458566f8f023058b26f380b7f60c2438", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given the Supreme Court does not rule on AI regulation before 2028, will California ban gasoline-powered vehicle sales before 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:19", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "66eb27bb75c7a6782022f460ff885d7d15adcd9634ac2a478fcd0a4aae4a763e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "bc4073150c49ab6260e3bf889cd968dc74b4a49d3f0914958d139cb5e1683d65", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given a new nuclear waste reduction method is developed and implemented, will the US Supreme Court rule on AI ethics by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "1fbbf148d2168ffd32e137068dc189a2f470832293984846c079baff503d8659", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Given no new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented by January 1, 2028, will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:20", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d36881f52aa452de3c2eb550f89775b867ece2cc18a9f066a482a9cc43017ea5", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "1b8f17b253cbb6345e8e8c127b903b1668aebf6b85c16177b7a33eee9a2ef75b", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given the US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028, will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "e9d212f40bd9784e785a7960c95d1e98f07c471d948218a01a574acf9cb3273f", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given no election for Speaker of the House before 2028, will the Democrats introduce UBI legislation by 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:23", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "1967123d46163f1c23a6930c1f713ba73b1463950543bd9dc270bdab7b101b57", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "03695c9517397077597e5be4882961d1f009bf6cfd9cb12b344eff266102abab", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% before 2028, will the US House pass a nuclear waste bill before 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "0312fa3a94354568337b56916e00bef20212e8fdec07fdc7764c4a5e0d3c49d0", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given Brazil fails to reduce Amazon deforestation by at least 70% before 2028, will the US House pass a nuclear waste management bill before 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:24", "category": "semantic", "code": "negative_condition_not_complement", "fields": [ "Q", "P_given_not_Q" ], "reason": "Q requires discovery plus confirmation by a reputable space agency plus publication in a peer-reviewed journal. P_given_not_Q instead says no discovery OR a discovery that is both not confirmed AND not published. A discovery missing only one required verification is omitted from this negative condition, so it is not the exact complement.", "source_question_ids": { "P": "199033cd-6a69-4190-9b33-5563bc613469", "Q": "a9fb7df5-3d75-42eb-9717-b3730a1658ac", "P_given_Q": "55e82b40-e6d6-4c07-8974-bb66b9f53206", "P_given_not_Q": "9d0c5f33-a04e-40d2-b211-263604a90d4b" } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:26", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0ea630e58ffe0ef3acbd96f1afec7a65bcc7af6068a3926d61d92a04f5d91228", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will Amazon publicly announce a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "faa3450c23c1a228e1d47ae2ca69dd5b6ded3b64cf2a36780f6926a88ae5db0a", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given Amazon's lobbying results in a federal law passage, will a 2028 US presidential candidate support dark matter research funding?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "6ba70df89783c5f77e3359352894080783a8eef050005eae368311033fefe8ac", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Given Amazon does not announce a successful lobbying effort for a federal law by 2028, will any 2028 US presidential candidate support dark matter research funding by 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:29", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "eb0735d9546e9db1dc64de9ff22ac94729b6ded8baca1771bb31f2e87e1f8f13", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0073f111bbd0fdaa5aa6c73104e385f881528f51aae01df39336611e75bd9e8e", "code": "us_nationwide_government_energy_program", "reason": "Full criteria require US-government-announced nationwide implementation of an AI-driven energy-management system. This is implementation of a nationwide government program, not a standalone technical system measurement.", "source_quote": "Will the United States implement a nationwide AI-driven energy management system by January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "058d76f5e27c7a25ffb5618fab71ea7d8c008458b457d44237438abdfe3b2ac8", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Given the US implements a nationwide AI energy management system by 2028, will the Senate pass AI regulation?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "a76a3e848ea5d68998182b318d7210b4fada2597a754f365ba10dbd5eade82bf", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Conditional on the United States not implementing a nationwide AI-driven energy management system by January 1, 2028, will the US Senate pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ExpectedEvidenceChecker:30", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "c3e214ee7b6339ea62f2e2d5c44e9b3ae9b279129c7f05f444877b7afc704c7f", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will China and the United States sign a bilateral climate agreement before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_Q", "proposition_id": "b2912b1273a354b7e5e35d6b30b78911c2243ee6ea967783cb712578c3461562", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Given Tesla announces a nuclear technology project, will China and the US sign a climate agreement by 2028?" }, { "field": "P_given_not_Q", "proposition_id": "3b282980d3c94956581fb948ce72856291fd9a692c5ec989a3ffe7bc7db7a2bb", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Given Tesla does not announce any nuclear technology project before 2028, will China and the United States sign a bilateral climate agreement before 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:4", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "64305b79717ef3e4461c9734777d3a9dcf86bb18adb7e5785d3941c474df395c", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will an executive from OpenAI hold a federal government position in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "e72fe19a6bc7a2e903a87efb736861df130e73889982ad6f32cf40782fb10f86", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will no executive from OpenAI hold a federal government position in the United States before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:9", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "14cdae1e4e5b6ba0374e43f3cd1b8105143f84e689a0206f6cbe8766d22acc89", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will any U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of OpenAI or similar AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "9f92d0d4125297d844b9d3962d6edad1c81ab785bcb205fb99e30bf6b5b7fc3d", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will no U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of OpenAI or similar AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:10", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7e07bfde1393f0d7ea2cccbe7a39752723819f3cae87995e8ece15a31a16fa22", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate have at least 55 Democratic members after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "9d45b3e1da08e9a7f85051d7910fe50786684d9a1fac366abd3cb402ac75b80a", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate have fewer than 55 Democratic members after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:11", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "c6e24a5d1aa7f103153b14af4018aca81d3fe7ec4c0a85759de30505d14f2a90", "code": "named_us_political_party_candidate_outcome", "reason": "Full criteria explicitly identify a Democratic Party (US) candidate as the Grammy outcome target. The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will a Democratic Party candidate win the Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "fed502706ec898515c28e0149bf36b791719f2e11f9201338c2796ef207737a5", "code": "named_us_political_party_candidate_outcome", "reason": "Full criteria explicitly identify a Democratic Party (US) candidate as the Grammy outcome target. The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will no Democratic Party candidate win the Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d5d254658d5a213c5d760bdfc995cb017c7a7b50a450750e6bac4c2a332aa6df", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will Iran and the United States re-establish formal diplomatic relations before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "d4adb549022be04f8647b59ae56ab061de0f5fa2bc02b155d671a167e6d0ccdb", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will Iran and the United States not re-establish formal diplomatic relations before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:16", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "4d69c0f1e2ed820fb47574abffcb6bdbf5e2fa626c15798d9e7e5a46b2c5c588", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress not hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:18", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "243ddfe35c86f56c11d846b33a3489b75265b4533d5a86b97aa7df8f31e949b7", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk host or co-host Saturday Night Live (SNL) again before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "not_P", "proposition_id": "f3f726016fe40544af34536a60ab53c5b6191b5dfa4ca6a2872903ebac5e25ae", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk not host or co-host Saturday Night Live (SNL) again before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/NegChecker:19", "category": "semantic", "code": "negation_quantifier_ambiguous", "fields": [ "P", "not_P" ], "reason": "P uses ATP or WTA singles rankings. Both the negative title and body use ATP and WTA, admitting the interpretation that no individual simultaneously tops both lists rather than neither list having a qualifying player. The full body does not remove the ambiguity.", "source_question_ids": { "P": "4871c712-e9dd-471e-aad1-7dc7c5b8827c", "not_P": "14618ca3-774b-41d6-92ff-ffffcb8413c5" } }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:1", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "afdb00a364d6ca412f5ebbd42e30e73ea2170d21fa04f8654839b24e946895d6", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States officially implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "3d068148f440de6863143993ad210682010cda70d27dbe877dba98c81e8a6afd", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either Canada hold a national referendum on energy independence or the United States implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:2", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "bdb12ed2fd6a18f16a23f7bf425ac3e38305f2cd3f4b0e59bf568a7f43dd3913", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d2930926661de3e3e368cfc3d34d38d95dede3e580fed007866afbeb11eafb65", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Republican Party (US) propose a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion for any fiscal year before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "a3ca633a406cde1fc72f99a66369936025ce50fb720e0a8ed4a5ff45b8ad44bf", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the Democratic Party (US) introduce legislation to phase out nuclear energy or the Republican Party (US) propose a federal budget with a deficit below $500 billion before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:6", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7a9fc91ba643511a734241e8e0ce17a69b5bc44000f039e3b11df188d772e359", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party gain a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "1f16d34daf9393e0c49516e28b5408b7ca281d075073b474b7cd72f1fd389445", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by their respective deadlines: (a) The global space industry generates annual revenues exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027 (b) The Democratic Party gains a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:9", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "d24d016d810f81de5ef98a3b58cf66708eb699e1ea9e8bd1c03e27c1afdf6798", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "85b454cd34a516af0657e98f9a20f4b5b8468d33f1dba72809c71cc472209fe6", "code": "us_involving_alliance_nuclear_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly requires adoption or non-adoption of NATO nuclear weapons policy, directly or as a condition/compound event. This alliance-wide defense-policy target encompasses US membership; NASA clauses do not remove the policy target.", "source_quote": "Will either NASA announce a nuclear-powered spacecraft mission or NATO officially adopt a new nuclear weapons policy before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:11", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "ee52744f71fef4ce54e0bdd30d105a56b81ca1975bd2383307974ec7aaeb6df1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will California pass legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "b641eb55f2fb46096b47532799c14fe7e711f039b34fb41e376ae138018bcc0b", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "1703779a3336f2e9acdb956f7932a71ec7ffbf72fefaec3a329861f88550042f", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) California passes legislation banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, or (b) the Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the regulation of artificial intelligence technologies?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:13", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "a8c28a7715bfb0362c3714e7cb55e277888a600398f5cf7beea521c2088d57e1", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "dcdb22e3827861b3669f40c4d1e027fc4d7c527c3bd9b03f50b83ccabdbb4cd4", "code": "us_federal_product_approval_decision", "reason": "Source requires a future FDA decision approving a drug/treatment, directly or as a condition/compound event. Held under the parent disposition for US federal regulatory decisions, despite the clinical subject; this does not exclude technical clinical performance absent an approval target.", "source_quote": "Will a new environmentally friendly drug be approved by the FDA for treating a major disease before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "9dfb70366d23b464e000010519c629f90694ea47b52b8ad7f0c71bf522b11335", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either a candidate with a background in biotechnology win a gubernatorial election in any US state or a new environmentally friendly drug be approved by the FDA for treating a major disease before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:14", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7b87b7edefe4696773fbd168a61cf99a3dc0eb9dd37c2d623b9d69da35d8feb0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk publicly endorse a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "807b806a6e5b8f25194e488d26de139c9919bb9c40740cceb9dd644d4353e672", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk's net worth, as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg, exceed $400 billion on January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "946c746b7adc533d6a9e00cd2f7396798aafa89e70e61bcba0cce787ba2ce6d0", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) Elon Musk publicly endorses a candidate in the 2028 US presidential election, or (b) Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $400 billion as reported by Forbes or Bloomberg?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "5aa69b6a856acf54143fe79c39a247a5189f8c0cbc3ccc5c5d792e81246903e1", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "4bdfcf7e4e3c797b59fb6b65badc4e704d459f117711ff7be3ea12d47e8292fe", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress pass a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "fc8adcabd669df9f1a42f7609886866a2cad76c556c7f1f0bff6166ea94052d6", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The US Senate passes a comprehensive climate change mitigation bill, or (b) The US Congress passes a federal law mandating net-zero carbon emissions by 2050?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:16", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "70e5eb5da3d65be4a04470fde19c35287d1929cc3fd8eccf6f09c59f79714aef", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "b2073a4f92f7dd37947bf059b573757fd9910c56da74a1eabb23be8d79cc40dd", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either the United States pass a federal law regulating AI in energy management or Canada implement a nationwide AI policy before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:20", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "66eb27bb75c7a6782022f460ff885d7d15adcd9634ac2a478fcd0a4aae4a763e", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "e553f85c5e619c04654dc7c4d2393b6ce1bfb32569c128ce1469c893bac47545", "code": "us_federal_judicial_or_linked_policy_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US Supreme Court ruling or non-ruling, often joined to US legislation/policy, as the requested outcome or a required condition. The full compound/conditional question retains that US political/legal target.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence, or (b) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:22", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d36881f52aa452de3c2eb550f89775b867ece2cc18a9f066a482a9cc43017ea5", "code": "us_party_legislative_or_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US political party proposing legislation, regulations, or a budget, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Absence of election wording does not make this policy target eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the Democratic Party introduce legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. A window beginning in 2024 does not authorize generation of a numerical political assessment merely because it includes a completed past election.", "source_quote": "Will the US Congress hold an election for Speaker of the House before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "beaa4c0d6182027563ed705e51b2e55a3d40a2a577b1e941ac31275ffc6ada20", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The Democratic Party introduces legislation for universal basic income in the U.S. Congress, or (b) The US Congress holds an election for Speaker of the House?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:24", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "1967123d46163f1c23a6930c1f713ba73b1463950543bd9dc270bdab7b101b57", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US House of Representatives pass a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "ea0b8122623628b7538602764cec4378949f27ac82a5690b08d561aeb6337363", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The US House of Representatives passes a bill specifically addressing nuclear waste management, or (b) Brazil reduces deforestation in the Amazon by at least 70% compared to 2020 levels?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:26", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "91694a0b567e5a9d5e923333eb40d44e3f4d5c9de26e3da8edb7e2318dc6bdda", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly support research funding for dark matter before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0ea630e58ffe0ef3acbd96f1afec7a65bcc7af6068a3926d61d92a04f5d91228", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will Amazon publicly announce a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "76f45971505c65fb086bd21990ce31d4c0cb58f553e3a81ecb18d9f372531e3a", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (1) Any candidate for the US presidential election in 2028 publicly supports research funding for dark matter or (2) Amazon publicly announces a lobbying effort that results in the passage of a federal law in the United States?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/OrChecker:29", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "eb0735d9546e9db1dc64de9ff22ac94729b6ded8baca1771bb31f2e87e1f8f13", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will the US Senate pass a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "Q", "proposition_id": "0073f111bbd0fdaa5aa6c73104e385f881528f51aae01df39336611e75bd9e8e", "code": "us_nationwide_government_energy_program", "reason": "Full criteria require US-government-announced nationwide implementation of an AI-driven energy-management system. This is implementation of a nationwide government program, not a standalone technical system measurement.", "source_quote": "Will the United States implement a nationwide AI-driven energy management system by January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "P_or_Q", "proposition_id": "482849d90c89d6015ae5c965e750660a406df791d5343d70667e57e5c65190fd", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will either of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) the US Senate passes a bill regulating AI technologies, including those developed by OpenAI, or (b) the United States implements a nationwide AI-driven energy management system?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ParaphraseChecker:2", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "14cdae1e4e5b6ba0374e43f3cd1b8105143f84e689a0206f6cbe8766d22acc89", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Will any U.S. state pass legislation requiring the use of OpenAI or similar AI models for election auditing before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "para_P", "proposition_id": "dd4ed511f63b02942b7799d6fc0c0d61357ecc5dc061529a5656a694996f3344", "code": "explicit_us_legislation_or_government_policy", "reason": "Source explicitly includes US federal/state legislation, legislative conduct, government policy, or its implementation as an outcome or required condition. A nonpolitical or non-US companion clause does not make the whole source question eligible.", "source_quote": "Is there going to be a law passed by any state in the U.S. mandating the use of AI models like OpenAI for election auditing by the end of 2027?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ParaphraseChecker:8", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "64305b79717ef3e4461c9734777d3a9dcf86bb18adb7e5785d3941c474df395c", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will an executive from OpenAI hold a federal government position in the United States before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "para_P", "proposition_id": "b1252fc226afd8c6109721f4ee69bcfccb769f6329435fa4020591c492bf573e", "code": "us_political_office_or_appointment", "reason": "Full criteria include appointed/elected US government roles such as Cabinet members, agency heads, or elected officials. Business affiliation of the candidate does not remove the US political-office target.", "source_quote": "Will a leader from OpenAI assume a federal role in the U.S. before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ParaphraseChecker:12", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "d5d254658d5a213c5d760bdfc995cb017c7a7b50a450750e6bac4c2a332aa6df", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will Iran and the United States re-establish formal diplomatic relations before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "para_P", "proposition_id": "281bff87416604eb63b2466148d3011f71dfe7e072e5f5127ea81ae8db483aaf", "code": "us_diplomatic_or_foreign_policy_action", "reason": "Source explicitly requires US diplomatic relations or a bilateral agreement involving the United States, directly or within a compound/conditional event.", "source_quote": "Will the United States and Iran resume official diplomatic ties before January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ParaphraseChecker:15", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "243ddfe35c86f56c11d846b33a3489b75265b4533d5a86b97aa7df8f31e949b7", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. This is not extended to corporate Tesla/SpaceX performance without a named-person predicate.", "source_quote": "Will Elon Musk host or co-host Saturday Night Live (SNL) again before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "para_P", "proposition_id": "c40e308fea0d837b02a6a450c797bc709a8f46c0f1d3033cde060c27fa147b65", "code": "conservative_named_us_political_entity_boundary", "reason": "Source explicitly names Elon Musk as the individual outcome target or a required condition. The parent applies a conservative named-person boundary based on his US executive-adviser/DOGE role; the source itself describes finance, science, or entertainment and does not establish that political role. 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The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will a Democratic Party candidate win the Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album before January 1, 2028?" }, { "field": "para_P", "proposition_id": "11e9e067785ffccf6a04a6c5dbb1bffdc6fc8ed82f8b5cd75dc08d253351bab6", "code": "named_us_political_party_candidate_outcome", "reason": "Full criteria explicitly identify a Democratic Party (US) candidate as the Grammy outcome target. The entertainment setting does not remove the named US political-party candidate restriction.", "source_quote": "Will a nominee from the Democratic Party secure the Grammy for Best Spoken Word Album prior to January 1, 2028?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ParaphraseChecker:17", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7e07bfde1393f0d7ea2cccbe7a39752723819f3cae87995e8ece15a31a16fa22", "code": "us_electoral_or_campaign_target", "reason": "Source explicitly includes a US election outcome, party representation, electoral occurrence, or campaign conduct, directly or within a compound/conditional event. 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Neither a nonpolitical companion nor an earlier start date removes that source predicate.", "source_quote": "Will at least 55 Senators belong to the Democratic Party in the US Senate after the 2026 midterms?" } ] }, { "tuple_id": "2028/ParaphraseChecker:18", "category": "topic", "code": "held_us_political_or_documented_boundary", "reason": "Whole group contains a held U.S. political/policy/regulatory target or an explicitly documented named-entity/alliance boundary; companions are excluded with the group.", "source_matches": [ { "field": "P", "proposition_id": "7c61aab6e47635bd78106937eef78e334756d6e82d5b9974de9d463d6c24fb59", "code": "us_congressional_speaker_election", "reason": "Source asks about occurrence/non-occurrence of an election for Speaker of the US House. 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Companion EPA predicates remain held." }, { "review_indices": [ 45, 81, 149, 150, 294, 295, 304, 305, 306, 307, 331, 391, 394, 395, 396, 399, 406, 407, 408, 434, 435, 505, 510, 527, 569, 574, 583 ], "disposition": "eligible", "basis": "Representative reviewed worldwide predicates: no identified US actor/policy target in the source. All variants follow the complete eligible/held ID partition, not this representative list." } ], "prior_scope_changes": { "first_scope_id": "nonpolitical-original300-reviewed-v1", "first_scope_questions_retained": 104, "first_scope_questions_removed": [ "243ddfe35c86f56c11d846b33a3489b75265b4533d5a86b97aa7df8f31e949b7", "48950b124f4cbb3e57b7f2ba9f183497c9315cbb785e6002d6cc82cb1bd27cd8", "c40e308fea0d837b02a6a450c797bc709a8f46c0f1d3033cde060c27fa147b65", "f3f726016fe40544af34536a60ab53c5b6191b5dfa4ca6a2872903ebac5e25ae" ], "expanded_scope_questions_retained": 274 }, "semantic_caveats": [ { "code": "conditional_source_caveat", "tuple_id": "2028/CondCondChecker:16", "detail": "The full bodies preserve P, Q and R, including date windows. R and the conjunction both mix singular a new trade agreement with plural agreements. 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Refusals/abstentions are retained and may shrink the scored intersection.", "Historical and current campaigns differ in elicitation dates, native clients and prompts.", "Named Musk personal-outcome targets and NATO collective-policy commitments are explicit conservative scope boundaries, not all mentions of US companies or technical agencies." ], "validation": { "original_cohort_only": true, "source_texts_modified": false, "complete_whole_tuple_union": true, "held_question_ids_absent": true, "all_source_tuples_accounted_for": true, "all_prior_semantic_exclusions_preserved": true } }